Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 1.69 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While AAP currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($42.86) and Max Pain ($48.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $68.46.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) advanced +0.31% to $45.73, trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($37.89 – $65.2). Stretched risk/reward at 63x P/E (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Is AAP a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Advance Auto Parts, Inc. on DeepValue Capital’s Substack. Since the thesis was published on June 18th, AAP shares have pulled back as weaker DIY demand and s
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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Advance Auto Parts faces weak Q2 sales, market share losses, and earnings risks despite cheaper valuation. Read the latest analysis on the stock here.
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One trades at a steep discount but bleeds cash; the other grows aggressively with strong margins. The financial gap between these two specialty retailers is stark.
One trades at 0.3x sales with negative free cash flow; the other at 5.1x with $2.2B in annual cash generation.
O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The company has a market value of about $75.1 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $18.6 billion in reven
Booking Holdings's revenue has climbed to $9 billion in peak quarters, while Advance Auto Parts has remained stuck near $2 billion—a widening gap that reflects their fundamentally different business models.
Over eight quarters, Chewy's revenue climbed steadily while Advance Auto Parts cycled between flat periods and seasonal spikes—a divergence that reveals two very different growth stories.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAP today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) ranks #971 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #376 by equity capitalization ($2.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AAP at 28/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP
ACTIVE
Advance Auto Parts Inc. | E | 28/100 | 62.8x | 43.4% | -1.4% | +0.31% | $2.76B | Benchmark Subject |
| HZO MarineMax Inc. (FL) | D | 50/100 | — | 32.5% | 2.4% | +0.17% | $1.16B | /hzo-vs-aap → |
| ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) | D- | 38/100 | — | 22.8% | -11.2% | +1.48% | $159.7M | /onew-vs-aap → |
| AZO AutoZone Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 20.2x | 52.6% | 55.8% | -0.62% | $50.49B | /azo-vs-aap → |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 28.1x | 51.6% | 48.0% | -2.62% | $71.25B | /orly-vs-aap → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) reported GAAP revenue of $8.60B (-5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $9.09B , and -6.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of -$46.0M, and free cash flow of -$298.0M (-210.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAP closed FY2025 with $11.83B in total assets against $3.41B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.69, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-03 | $8.60B | $44.0M | -$46.0M | -$298.0M | $11.83B | $3.41B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-28 | $9.09B | -$336.0M | $85.0M | -$96.0M | $10.80B | $1.79B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-30 | $9.21B | $30.0M | $287.0M | $287.0M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $45.73 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $2.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAP ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), AAP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 62.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of -1.4%. By comparison, HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).
Per AAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001158449), Advance Auto Parts Inc. generated $8.60B in revenue (-5.4% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and -$298.0M in free cash flow against $11.83B in total assets and $3.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
AAP last traded at $45.73 (+0.31% on volume of 947,031 shares), positioning the stock +6.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.86) and -11.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($51.75). Across its 52-week range of $37.89 to $65.20, AAP sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($42.12 to $49.34).
Why AAP Stock advanced +0.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 63x P/E (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.