Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AAP / financials

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Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Is AAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $45.73 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $2.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAP ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does AAP compare to HZO and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), AAP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 62.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of -1.4%. By comparison, HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAP?

Per AAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001158449), Advance Auto Parts Inc. generated $8.60B in revenue (-5.4% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and -$298.0M in free cash flow against $11.83B in total assets and $3.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is AAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AAP last traded at $45.73 (+0.31% on volume of 947,031 shares), positioning the stock +6.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.86) and -11.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($51.75). Across its 52-week range of $37.89 to $65.20, AAP sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($42.12 to $49.34).

Q: How profitable is Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), AAP converted $8.6B of revenue into a 43.4% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$45.73 +0.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.67

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.67 (-0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AAP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AAP SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.69 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$42.30+5.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$44.45+5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$46.92-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$45.73-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AAP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AAP currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($42.86) and Max Pain ($48.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $68.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AAP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AAP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How AAP Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $9.21B

FY24

Rev $9.09B

FY25

Rev $8.60B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$8.60B	43.4%	-0.5%	$44.0M	-$298.0M	-1.4%
FY 2024	$9.09B	37.5%	-7.8%	-$336.0M	-$96.0M	-27%
FY 2023	$9.21B	43.4%	0.4%	$30.0M	$287.0M	-1.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AAP)

✓Walkthrough of AAP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AAP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.16%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $45.38H $46.10L $44.80C $45.73VOL 1.32M

RES: $53.10SUP: $36.16SMA50: $42.86SMA200: $51.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AAP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AAP Butterfly Map → + Track AAP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

42.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AAP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AAP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #971 of 1011 ⚔️ HZO vs AAP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AAP vs. HZO, ONEW, AZO, ORLY)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) ranks #971 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #376 by equity capitalization ($2.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AAP at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AAP ACTIVE Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	+0.31%	$2.76B	Benchmark Subject
HZO MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D	50/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	+0.17%	$1.16B	/hzo-vs-aap →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+1.48%	$159.7M	/onew-vs-aap →
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	-0.62%	$50.49B	/azo-vs-aap →
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc.	C+	67/100	28.1x	51.6%	48.0%	-2.62%	$71.25B	/orly-vs-aap →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001158449

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) reported GAAP revenue of $8.60B (-5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $9.09B , and -6.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of -$46.0M, and free cash flow of -$298.0M (-210.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAP closed FY2025 with $11.83B in total assets against $3.41B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.69, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$8.60B	$44.0M	-$46.0M	-$298.0M	$11.83B	$3.41B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$9.09B	-$336.0M	$85.0M	-$96.0M	$10.80B	$1.79B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$9.21B	$30.0M	$287.0M	$287.0M	—	—

3. AAP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $45.73 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $2.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAP ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AAP compare to HZO and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), AAP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 62.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of -1.4%. By comparison, HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAP?

Per AAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001158449), Advance Auto Parts Inc. generated $8.60B in revenue (-5.4% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and -$298.0M in free cash flow against $11.83B in total assets and $3.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AAP last traded at $45.73 (+0.31% on volume of 947,031 shares), positioning the stock +6.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.86) and -11.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($51.75). Across its 52-week range of $37.89 to $65.20, AAP sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($42.12 to $49.34).