Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AAP / earnings

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Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.9% Move

Q: Is AAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $45.73 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $2.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAP ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does AAP compare to HZO and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), AAP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 62.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of -1.4%. By comparison, HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAP?

Per AAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001158449), Advance Auto Parts Inc. generated $8.60B in revenue (-5.4% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and -$298.0M in free cash flow against $11.83B in total assets and $3.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is AAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AAP last traded at $45.73 (+0.31% on volume of 947,031 shares), positioning the stock +6.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.86) and -11.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($51.75). Across its 52-week range of $37.89 to $65.20, AAP sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($42.12 to $49.34).

Q: When is AAP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 2, 2027.

Q: How much is AAP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.9% event move for AAP, spanning a range between $42.12 and $49.34.

$45.73 +0.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.67

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.67 (-0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AAP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AAP SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.69 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$42.30+5.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$44.45+5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$46.92-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$45.73-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AAP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AAP currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($42.86) and Max Pain ($48.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $68.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AAP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AAP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 2, 2027 (~61 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.9% Swing Band

±$3.61 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AAP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 28/100

Trailing EPS: $0.73 • YoY Revenue Growth: -5.4%

Model Bullish Setup (28/100)Model Risk Weight (72/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-01-03	$8.60B	$44.0M	-$298.0M	43.4%
FY 2024	2024-12-28	$9.09B	-$336.0M	-$96.0M	37.5%
FY 2023	2023-12-30	$9.21B	$30.0M	$287.0M	43.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AAP)

✓Walkthrough of AAP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AAP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.16%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $45.38H $46.10L $44.80C $45.73VOL 1.32M

RES: $53.10SUP: $36.16SMA50: $42.86SMA200: $51.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AAP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AAP Butterfly Map → + Track AAP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

42.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AAP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AAP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #971 of 1011 ⚔️ HZO vs AAP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AAP vs. HZO, ONEW, AZO, ORLY)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) ranks #971 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #376 by equity capitalization ($2.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AAP at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AAP ACTIVE Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	+0.31%	$2.76B	Benchmark Subject
HZO MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D	50/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	+0.17%	$1.16B	/hzo-vs-aap →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+1.48%	$159.7M	/onew-vs-aap →
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	-0.62%	$50.49B	/azo-vs-aap →
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc.	C+	67/100	28.1x	51.6%	48.0%	-2.62%	$71.25B	/orly-vs-aap →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001158449

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) reported GAAP revenue of $8.60B (-5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $9.09B , and -6.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of -$46.0M, and free cash flow of -$298.0M (-210.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAP closed FY2025 with $11.83B in total assets against $3.41B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.69, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$8.60B	$44.0M	-$46.0M	-$298.0M	$11.83B	$3.41B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$9.09B	-$336.0M	$85.0M	-$96.0M	$10.80B	$1.79B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$9.21B	$30.0M	$287.0M	$287.0M	—	—

3. AAP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $45.73 (+0.31% 1D, market cap $2.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAP ranks #971 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AAP compare to HZO and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), AAP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 62.8x, gross margin of 43.4%, and ROIC of -1.4%. By comparison, HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAP?

Per AAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001158449), Advance Auto Parts Inc. generated $8.60B in revenue (-5.4% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and -$298.0M in free cash flow against $11.83B in total assets and $3.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AAP last traded at $45.73 (+0.31% on volume of 947,031 shares), positioning the stock +6.70% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.86) and -11.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($51.75). Across its 52-week range of $37.89 to $65.20, AAP sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($42.12 to $49.34).

AAP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AAP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 2, 2027.

How much is AAP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.9% event move for AAP, spanning a range between $42.12 and $49.34.

Direct Sub-Reports: AAP RQD Cockpit AAP 12M Forecast AAP Earnings & Move AAP Dividends & DRIP AAP Insiders & 13F AAP Whale Options AAP Profit Sankey AAP News & Why