RISK WATCHReuters • 52m ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
Why AAL Stock advanced +1.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.78 +1.59% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $8.47B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AAL Stock advanced +1.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) advanced +1.59% to $12.78, trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($10.09 – $18.79). Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($10.09 – $18.79) with RSI-14 at 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.6% around $12.78 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $640.5M annual free cash flow.
Live AAL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
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CATALYSTReuters • 3h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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- ✓Walkthrough of AAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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AAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.21%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-01O $12.58H $12.78L $12.58C $12.78VOL 63.19M
RES: $12.86SUP: $11.48SMA50: $12.93SMA200: $13.51
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AAL)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #253 of 304
⚔️ LTM vs AAL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AAL vs. LTM, CPA, FDXF, ALK)
Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (10 Tracked Issuers)Across 304 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) ranks #253 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #183 by equity capitalization ($8.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDXF leads on earnings valuation at 25.0x trailing P/E, while AAL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CPA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with AAL at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL
ACTIVE
American Airlines Group Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 76.3x | — | 85.0% | +1.59% | $8.47B | Benchmark Subject |
| LTM LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American | D | 49/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +0.27% | $12.62B | /ltm-vs-aal → |
| CPA Copa Holdings S.A. | D+ | 56/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +1.05% | $5.40B | /cpa-vs-aal → |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc. | D | 45/100 | 25.0x | — | 8.3% | +1.25% | $16.40B | /fdxf-vs-aal → |
| ALK Alaska Air Group Inc. | D- | 43/100 | 40.3x | — | 2.9% | +1.60% | $4.03B | /alk-vs-aal → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000006201In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) reported GAAP revenue of $54.63B (+0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $54.21B , and +3.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $111.0M, operating cash flow of $3.10B, and free cash flow of $640.5M (-58.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAL closed FY2025 with $61.77B in total assets against $14.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.74, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $54.63B | $111.0M | $3.10B | $640.5M | $61.77B | $14.46B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $54.21B | $846.0M | $3.98B | $1.54B | $61.78B | $14.46B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $52.79B | $822.0M | $3.80B | $1.43B | $63.35B | $14.82B |
3. AAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.78 (+1.59% 1D, market cap $8.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 304 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAL ranks #253 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AAL compare to LTM and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AAL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $12.62B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDXF leads on earnings multiple (25.0x) while AAL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAL?
Per AAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000006201), American Airlines Group Inc. generated $54.63B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $640.5M in free cash flow against $61.77B in total assets and $14.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AAL last traded at $12.78 (+1.59% on volume of 63,190,847 shares), positioning the stock -1.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.93) and -5.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.51). Across its 52-week range of $10.09 to $18.79, AAL sits at the 30.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($11.68 to $13.88).
AAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AAL stock moving today?
Why AAL Stock advanced +1.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.