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Vistra Corp. (VST) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$140.95 -1.24% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $140.37

Vistra Corp. (VST) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $47.31B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $140.37 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 7.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VST SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.5% FCF Margin ($1.32B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.8) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$158.13-5.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$149.70-5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$141.73-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$140.95-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VST currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($145.17) and Max Pain ($148.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $206.64.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.28>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE13% OF RANGE

L: $133$140.95H: $197

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on VST

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

7.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.79% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 1.28 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (35)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 4/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VST

✓Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 50x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VST)

✓Walkthrough of VST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-01O $142.7H $142.7L $141.0C $141.0VOL 4.94M

RES: $168.1SUP: $132.6SMA50: $145.2SMA200: $153.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VST Butterfly Map → + Track VST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

36.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

DEVELOPING · IPP Capacity Auction Momentum Trigger

Trigger: $145.46 • Invalidation: $130.38

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

NVDA → VST Analyst Hypothesis

Always-on 24/7 AI training/inference clusters tighten reserve margins in ERCOT and PJM, lifting forward spark spreads and capacity clearing prices across Vistra unhedged nuclear and natural-gas fleet.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video 💡 The Second-Order AI Bottleneck: Hyperscaler CapEx Is Shifting Pricing Power to Custom Networking, Switchgear & Baseload IPPs (mara-quenwick) 💡 Public Correction & Regulatory Revision: Co-Located Nuclear PPA Timelines After FERC Docket ER24-2172 (iona-brackenford) 🏛️ COMMENT_RULEMAKING: Large Power Transformers From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025 (Commerce Department • International Trade Administration) 🏛️ PROPOSAL: Bipartisan Grid Permitting Reform, NRC SMR Brownfield Siting & Multi-Year Munitions Bill Draft (U.S. Senate Energy & Natural Resources / Armed Services Committees (119th Congress)) 🎬 Curated Video: Elon Musk’s Power Plant on Wheels (Patrick Boyle) →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VST)

Utilities Rank #94 of 117 ⚔️ ETR vs VST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (VST vs. ETR, D, AEP, FTS)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vistra Corp. (VST) ranks #94 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #13 by equity capitalization ($47.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEP leads on earnings valuation at 17.0x trailing P/E, while FTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. FTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with VST at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VST ACTIVE Vistra Corp.	D-	41/100	50.1x	—	7.7%	-1.24%	$47.31B	Benchmark Subject
ETR Entergy Corporation	D	46/100	20.5x	—	5.9%	+1.94%	$51.32B	/etr-vs-vst →
D Dominion Energy Inc.	C	65/100	19.1x	—	5.5%	+1.31%	$57.27B	/d-vs-vst →
AEP American Electric Power Company Inc.	C	63/100	17.0x	—	5.6%	+0.89%	$70.43B	/aep-vs-vst →
FTS Fortis Inc.	C+	69/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+1.36%	$29.68B	/fts-vs-vst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001692819

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vistra Corp. (VST) reported GAAP revenue of $17.59B (+19.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.76B , and +27.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $944.0M, operating cash flow of $4.07B, and free cash flow of $1.32B (-47.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, VST closed FY2025 with $41.55B in total assets against $16.40B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.28, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$17.59B	$944.0M	$4.07B	$1.32B	$41.55B	$16.40B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$14.76B	$2.66B	$4.56B	$2.48B	$37.77B	$14.48B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$13.80B	$1.49B	$5.45B	$4.83B	$26.02B	$6.09B

3. VST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $140.95 (-1.24% 1D, market cap $47.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, VST ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VST compare to ETR and D in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), VST carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 50.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, ETR (Entergy Corporation) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 20.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $51.32B) and D (Dominion Energy Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $57.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEP leads on earnings multiple (17.0x) while FTS leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VST?

Per VST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692819), Vistra Corp. generated $17.59B in revenue (+19.1% YoY), $944.0M in net income, and $1.32B in free cash flow against $41.55B in total assets and $16.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VST last traded at $140.95 (-1.24% on volume of 4,935,215 shares), positioning the stock -2.91% below its 50-day simple moving average ($145.17) and -8.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.41). Across its 52-week range of $132.66 to $196.80, VST sits at the 12.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($125.45 to $156.45).

VST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell VST stock right now?

Vistra Corp. (VST) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 41/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 50x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is VST's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VST's 12-month base price target is $130.17 (range $101.53 to $206.64), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: VST RQD Cockpit VST 12M Forecast VST Earnings & Move VST Dividends & DRIP VST Insiders & 13F VST Whale Options VST Profit Sankey VST News & Why