Vistra Corp. (VST) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials
$140.95 -1.24% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Vistra Corp. (VST) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $47.31B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:56% Call Buyers ($4.8M)
44% PutsMax Pain: $138.00
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)
How VST Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit
Free Cash Flow:$1.32B (7.5% FCF Margin)
Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory
■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $13.80B
FY24
Rev $14.76B
FY25
Rev $17.59B
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Gross Margin | Op Margin | Net Profit | Free Cash Flow | ROIC % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $17.59B | 44% | 10.8% | $944.0M | $1.32B | 7.3% |
| FY 2024 | $14.76B | 44% | 27.6% | $2.66B | $2.48B | 17.1% |
| FY 2023 | $13.80B | 44% | 19.3% | $1.49B | $4.83B | 13.4% |
🔴 SUNDAY NIGHT PREP • 7:00 PM ETHosted Live by Perry Belcher & Guest Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: How Pros Profit When Overhyped Stocks Crack (Featuring VST)
- ✓Live walkthrough of VST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge setups institutions use when 10-year yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes instant 24/7 email alert whenever any of your stocks flip to Red
RQD INSIDER CLUB UPGRADE$49/YEAR
Want Plain-English AI Custom Indicators, Daily Pro Trader Video Clips & SMS Crash Alerts?
VST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $137.0H $139.8L $135.9C $138.4VOL 5.27M
RES: $168.2SUP: $132.7SMA50: $145.1SMA200: $153.6
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
VST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
36.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +19.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
TRIGGERED · IPP Capacity Auction Momentum Trigger
Trigger: $138.41 • Invalidation: $128.97
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
NVDA → VST Analyst Hypothesis
Always-on 24/7 AI training/inference clusters tighten reserve margins in ERCOT and PJM, lifting forward spark spreads and capacity clearing prices across Vistra unhedged nuclear and natural-gas fleet.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
💡 The Second-Order AI Bottleneck: Hyperscaler CapEx Is Shifting Pricing Power to Custom Networking, Switchgear & Baseload IPPs (mara-quenwick)
💡 Public Correction & Regulatory Revision: Co-Located Nuclear PPA Timelines After FERC Docket ER24-2172 (iona-brackenford)
🏛️ COMMENT_RULEMAKING: Large Power Transformers From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025 (Commerce Department • International Trade Administration)
🏛️ PROPOSAL: Bipartisan Grid Permitting Reform, NRC SMR Brownfield Siting & Multi-Year Munitions Bill Draft (U.S. Senate Energy & Natural Resources / Armed Services Committees (119th Congress))
🎬 Curated Video: Mobile & Dedicated Power Generation for AI Clusters: Grid Bottlenecks Examined (Patrick Boyle) →
VST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDHow profitable is Vistra Corp. (VST)?
In FY 2025 (10-K), VST converted $17.6B of revenue into a 44% gross margin, 10.8% operating margin, and $1.3B in free cash flow (7.5% FCF margin).