Vistra Corp. (VST) Whale Options Tug-of-War, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps
$140.95 -1.24% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Vistra Corp. (VST) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $47.31B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:56% Call Buyers ($4.8M)
44% PutsMax Pain: $138.00
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
56% Calls / 44% Puts
Put/Call Ratio: 0.77x
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
$138.00
-2.09% vs. current $140.95 spot
OPTIONS-IMPLIED VOLATILITY MOVE
±5.4%
Expected event band around $140.95
Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VST)
$130
6,313C / 11,538P
$135
6,313C / 11,538P
$140
14,764C / 11,538P
$145
14,764C / 4,987P
$150
14,764C / 4,987P
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RQD INSIDER CLUB UPGRADE$49/YEAR
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VST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $137.0H $139.8L $135.9C $138.4VOL 5.27M
RES: $168.2SUP: $132.7SMA50: $145.1SMA200: $153.6
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
VST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
36.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +19.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
TRIGGERED · IPP Capacity Auction Momentum Trigger
Trigger: $138.41 • Invalidation: $128.97
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
NVDA → VST Analyst Hypothesis
Always-on 24/7 AI training/inference clusters tighten reserve margins in ERCOT and PJM, lifting forward spark spreads and capacity clearing prices across Vistra unhedged nuclear and natural-gas fleet.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
💡 The Second-Order AI Bottleneck: Hyperscaler CapEx Is Shifting Pricing Power to Custom Networking, Switchgear & Baseload IPPs (mara-quenwick)
💡 Public Correction & Regulatory Revision: Co-Located Nuclear PPA Timelines After FERC Docket ER24-2172 (iona-brackenford)
🏛️ COMMENT_RULEMAKING: Large Power Transformers From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025 (Commerce Department • International Trade Administration)
🏛️ PROPOSAL: Bipartisan Grid Permitting Reform, NRC SMR Brownfield Siting & Multi-Year Munitions Bill Draft (U.S. Senate Energy & Natural Resources / Armed Services Committees (119th Congress))
🎬 Curated Video: Mobile & Dedicated Power Generation for AI Clusters: Grid Bottlenecks Examined (Patrick Boyle) →
VST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhat is VST's options max pain and whale flow sentiment?
Unusual options sweeps in VST show 56% bullish call premium versus 44% put premium, centered near a $138 max-pain strike.