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Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$73.31 -0.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.40

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.67B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.40 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PARR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PARR SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4% FCF Margin ($296.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$81.89+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$83.42-7.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$77.15-5% Next Q

Current

Grade B$73.31+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (80) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PARR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, PARR faces multiple-compression risk if 9.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.35) or 200D SMA ($64.19) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($77.93) toward Bear Floor ($60.11).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PARR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PARR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

43.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.78>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE69% OF RANGE

L: $34$73.31H: $91

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: B+RQD 16 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on PARR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (80)

19.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.07% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 3.78 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like PARR

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PARR Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PARR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.63%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $73.85H $76.46L $73.31C $73.31VOL 706.3K

RES: $92.79SUP: $81.03SMA50: $81.35SMA200: $64.19

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PARR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PARR Butterfly Map → + Track PARR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-1.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PARR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PARR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PARR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PARR)

Energy Rank #28 of 211 ⚔️ BTE vs PARR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (PARR vs. BTE, CPK, HESM, HP)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) ranks #28 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #102 by equity capitalization ($3.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PARR leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while PARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PARR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PARR ACTIVE Par Pacific Holdings Inc.	B	72/100	9.9x	—	19.8%	-0.65%	$3.67B	Benchmark Subject
BTE Baytex Energy Corp	B-	71/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.65%	$3.81B	/bte-vs-parr →
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation	D+	58/100	23.3x	—	6.9%	+1.39%	$3.27B	/cpk-vs-parr →
HESM Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests	D+	54/100	11.7x	—	19.1%	+1.70%	$4.14B	/hesm-vs-parr →
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	0.1%	-0.55%	$4.16B	/hp-vs-parr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000821483

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) reported GAAP revenue of $7.46B (-6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.97B , and -9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $369.4M, operating cash flow of $445.3M, and free cash flow of $296.5M (+672.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PARR closed FY2025 with $3.83B in total assets against $797.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.78, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$7.46B	$369.4M	$445.3M	$296.5M	$3.83B	$797.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.97B	-$33.3M	$83.8M	-$51.8M	$3.83B	$1.11B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$8.23B	$728.6M	$579.2M	$579.2M	—	—

3. PARR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PARR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $73.31 (-0.65% 1D, market cap $3.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, PARR ranks #28 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PARR compare to BTE and CPK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), PARR carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.8%. By comparison, BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.81B) and CPK (Chesapeake Utilities Corporation) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 23.3x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PARR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while PARR leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PARR?

Per PARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000821483), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. generated $7.46B in revenue (-6.4% YoY), $369.4M in net income, and $296.5M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $797.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PARR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PARR last traded at $73.31 (-0.65% on volume of 659,975 shares), positioning the stock -9.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.35) and +14.21% above its 200-day simple moving average ($64.19). Across its 52-week range of $34.37 to $90.74, PARR sits at the 69.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($64.15 to $82.47).

PARR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell PARR stock right now?

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy — BUY) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is PARR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

PARR's 12-month base price target is $77.93 (range $60.11 to $95.28), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: PARR RQD Cockpit PARR 12M Forecast PARR Earnings & Move PARR Dividends & DRIP PARR Insiders & 13F PARR Whale Options PARR Profit Sankey PARR News & Why