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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.88 +2.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.91

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.28B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.91 (+0.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GO SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 82% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$11.96+7.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$12.87+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$13.30-3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$12.88-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, GO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.01) or 200D SMA ($9.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.71) toward Bear Floor ($9.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

57.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.77>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE82% OF RANGE

L: $6$12.88H: $14

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

-12.6% ROIC with 30.3% gross margin and 1.86% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.77 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (58)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GO

✓Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GO)

✓Walkthrough of GO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +62.83%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $13.02H $13.11L $12.79C $12.88VOL 2.62M

RES: $14.23SUP: $11.88SMA50: $12.01SMA200: $9.56

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GO Butterfly Map → + Track GO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GO)

Consumer Staples Rank #78 of 146 ⚔️ YSWY vs GO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (GO vs. YSWY, IMKTA, WMK, NGVC)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) ranks #78 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #67 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NGVC leads on earnings valuation at 14.1x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. YSWY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with GO at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GO ACTIVE Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	55/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.47%	$1.28B	Benchmark Subject
YSWY Yesway Inc. (Class A)	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+0.79%	$1.54B	/yswy-vs-go →
IMKTA Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)	C-	59/100	18.9x	23.9%	4.4%	-0.49%	$1.58B	/imkta-vs-go →
WMK Weis Markets Inc.	D+	56/100	19.8x	25.0%	7.3%	+0.75%	$1.85B	/wmk-vs-go →
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	D+	58/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	-5.44%	$656.4M	/ngvc-vs-go →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001771515

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.69B (+7.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.37B , and +18.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$224.9M, operating cash flow of $222.1M, and free cash flow of $23.8M (+131.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GO closed FY2025 with $3.09B in total assets against $477.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.77, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$4.69B	-$224.9M	$222.1M	$23.8M	$3.09B	$477.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$4.37B	$39.5M	$112.0M	-$74.6M	$3.17B	$462.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$3.97B	$79.4M	$303.4M	$303.4M	—	—

3. GO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $12.88 (+2.47% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, GO ranks #78 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GO compare to YSWY and IMKTA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), GO carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.3%, and ROIC of -12.6%. By comparison, YSWY (Yesway Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.54B) and IMKTA (Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 4.4%, cap $1.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NGVC leads on earnings multiple (14.1x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GO?

Per GO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001771515), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. generated $4.69B in revenue (+7.3% YoY), -$224.9M in net income, and $23.8M in free cash flow against $3.09B in total assets and $477.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GO last traded at $12.88 (+2.47% on volume of 2,562,652 shares), positioning the stock +7.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.01) and +34.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.56). Across its 52-week range of $5.66 to $14.49, GO sits at the 81.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($11.85 to $13.91).

GO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GO stock right now?

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 55/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-13% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GO's 12-month base price target is $12.71 (range $9.91 to $15.21), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GO RQD Cockpit GO 12M Forecast GO Earnings & Move GO Dividends & DRIP GO Insiders & 13F GO Whale Options GO Profit Sankey GO News & Why