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First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$21.02 +0.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.10

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $2.04B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FCF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FCF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE: FCF) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $21.02 (+0.91% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FCF ranks #100 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FCF compare to CHCO and TBBK in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FCF carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, CHCO (City Holding Company) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 15.5x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $2.02B) and TBBK (The Bancorp Inc) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 33.1%, cap $2.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TBBK leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while TBBK leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCF?

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Per FCF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712537), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $152.3M in net income, and $171.5M in free cash flow against $12.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.10 (+0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FCF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FCF SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($171.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$20.05+1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$20.27+4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$21.19-0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$21.02+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FCF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, FCF faces multiple-compression risk if 13.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.73) or 200D SMA ($19.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.25) toward Bear Floor ($17.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FCF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FCF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

5830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE82% OF RANGE

L: $15$21.02H: $22

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on FCF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

9.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.42% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (72)

30/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FCF

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FCF Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FCF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.93%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $20.83H $21.02L $20.83C $21.02VOL 998.6K

RES: $21.35SUP: $19.64SMA50: $20.73SMA200: $19.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FCF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FCF Butterfly Map → + Track FCF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FCF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FCF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FCF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FCF)

Financials Rank #100 of 1096 ⚔️ CHCO vs FCF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FCF vs. CHCO, TBBK, HTH, SRCE)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) ranks #100 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #425 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TBBK leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while TBBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.1% ROIC and — gross margin. FCF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FCF ACTIVE First Commonwealth Financial Corporation	B-	71/100	13.4x	—	9.8%	+0.91%	$2.04B	Benchmark Subject
CHCO City Holding Company	B-	71/100	15.5x	—	16.1%	+1.03%	$2.02B	/chco-vs-fcf →
TBBK The Bancorp Inc	C-	61/100	9.0x	—	33.1%	+0.20%	$2.06B	/tbbk-vs-fcf →
HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	12.7x	—	7.7%	+1.58%	$2.12B	/hth-vs-fcf →
SRCE 1st Source Corporation	C	63/100	—	—	—	+0.97%	$2.13B	/srce-vs-fcf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000712537

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $152.3M, operating cash flow of $187.5M, and free cash flow of $171.5M (+50.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FCF closed FY2025 with $12.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$152.3M	$187.5M	$171.5M	$12.34B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$142.6M	$129.5M	$113.9M	$11.58B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$157.1M	$150.8M	$150.8M	—	—

3. FCF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FCF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FCF compare to CHCO and TBBK in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCF?

Where is FCF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FCF last traded at $21.02 (+0.91% on volume of 998,636 shares), positioning the stock +1.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.73) and +8.02% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.46). Across its 52-week range of $15.00 to $22.34, FCF sits at the 82.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($20.26 to $21.78).

FCF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FCF stock right now?

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is FCF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FCF's 12-month base price target is $22.25 (range $17.24 to $26.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FCF RQD Cockpit FCF 12M Forecast FCF Earnings & Move FCF Dividends & DRIP FCF Insiders & 13F FCF Whale Options FCF Profit Sankey FCF News & Why