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GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.05 -1.07% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.00

GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $324.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.00 (-0.38%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EAF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EAF SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 48% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$9.11-22.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$7.10+19.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$8.51+41.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$12.05-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EAF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EAF currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.35) and Max Pain ($12.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EAF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EAF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

68.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE48% OF RANGE

L: $5$12.05H: $20

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on EAF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

-7.3% ROIC with -3.1% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like EAF

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EAF)

✓Walkthrough of EAF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

EAF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $11.65H $12.05L $11.53C $12.05VOL 389.1K

RES: $12.41SUP: $6.22SMA50: $8.35SMA200: $8.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EAF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EAF Butterfly Map → + Track EAF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EAF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EAF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EAF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EAF)

Energy Rank #183 of 211 ⚔️ NPWR vs EAF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EAF vs. NPWR, BLDP, FCEL, EROC)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) ranks #183 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #166 by equity capitalization ($324.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EAF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while EAF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -7.3% ROIC and -3.1% gross margin. BLDP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with EAF at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EAF ACTIVE GrafTech International Ltd.	D-	40/100	—	-3.1%	-7.3%	-1.07%	$324.1M	Benchmark Subject
NPWR NET Power Inc. (Class A)	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	-6.46%	$188.0M	/npwr-vs-eaf →
BLDP Ballard Power Systems Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.24%	$561.7M	/bldp-vs-eaf →
FCEL FuelCell Energy Inc.	E	33/100	—	-16.7%	-35.0%	-1.62%	$973.8M	/fcel-vs-eaf →
EROC ERock Inc. (Class A)	D	45/100	—	—	—	-0.33%	$1.97B	/eroc-vs-eaf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000931148

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) reported GAAP revenue of $504.1M (-6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $538.8M , and -18.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$219.8M, operating cash flow of -$81.6M, and free cash flow of -$120.5M (-62.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EAF closed FY2025 with $1.03B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$504.1M	-$219.8M	-$81.6M	-$120.5M	$1.03B	$1.09B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$538.8M	-$131.2M	-$40.1M	-$74.4M	$1.22B	$1.09B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$620.5M	-$255.3M	$76.6M	$76.6M	—	—

3. EAF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EAF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE: EAF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (-1.07% 1D, market cap $324.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EAF ranks #183 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EAF compare to NPWR and BLDP in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), EAF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.1%, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, NPWR (NET Power Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $188.0M) and BLDP (Ballard Power Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $561.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while EAF leads on capital efficiency (-7.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EAF?

Per EAF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000931148), GrafTech International Ltd. generated $504.1M in revenue (-6.4% YoY), -$219.8M in net income, and -$120.5M in free cash flow against $1.03B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EAF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EAF last traded at $12.05 (-1.07% on volume of 560,154 shares), positioning the stock +44.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.35) and +43.45% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.40). Across its 52-week range of $4.92 to $19.72, EAF sits at the 48.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.54 to $13.56).

EAF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell EAF stock right now?

GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 40/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is EAF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

EAF's 12-month base price target is $11.07 (range $8.63 to $20.71), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: EAF RQD Cockpit EAF 12M Forecast EAF Earnings & Move EAF Dividends & DRIP EAF Insiders & 13F EAF Whale Options EAF Profit Sankey EAF News & Why