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First Busey Corporation (Class A) (BUSE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$29.47 +0.79% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.46

First Busey Corporation (Class A) (BUSE) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.45B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.46 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 24% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BUSE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BUSE SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 77% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$28.93+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$29.43+3.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$30.33-2.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$29.47+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BUSE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, BUSE faces multiple-compression risk if 18.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.86) or 200D SMA ($27.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.93) toward Bear Floor ($24.13).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BUSE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BUSE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

39.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE77% OF RANGE

L: $22$29.47H: $32

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on BUSE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

5.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.05% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (75)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BUSE

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BUSE Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BUSE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.48%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $29.47H $29.47L $28.71C $29.47VOL 1.09M

RES: $30.72SUP: $28.60SMA50: $29.86SMA200: $27.93

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BUSE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BUSE Butterfly Map → + Track BUSE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +55.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BUSE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BUSE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BUSE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BUSE)

Financials Rank #180 of 1096 ⚔️ SYBT vs BUSE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BUSE vs. SYBT, MBIN, BANR, FRME)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Busey Corporation (Class A) (BUSE) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #399 by equity capitalization ($2.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBIN leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while SYBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SYBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with BUSE at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BUSE ACTIVE First Busey Corporation (Class A)	C+	69/100	18.1x	—	5.5%	+0.79%	$2.45B	Benchmark Subject
SYBT Stock Yards Bancorp Inc.	B	73/100	17.4x	—	13.0%	+2.46%	$2.44B	/sybt-vs-buse →
MBIN Merchants Bancorp	D+	52/100	10.9x	—	9.6%	+5.84%	$2.39B	/mbin-vs-buse →
BANR Banner Corporation	D+	57/100	—	—	3.8%	+0.93%	$2.54B	/banr-vs-buse →
FRME First Merchants Corporation	B-	71/100	11.4x	—	9.2%	+1.06%	$2.58B	/frme-vs-buse →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000314489

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Busey Corporation (Class A) (BUSE) reported GAAP revenue of $719.6M (+55.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $462.3M , and +62.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $135.3M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $173.0M (+0.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BUSE closed FY2025 with $18.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$719.6M	$135.3M	$192.6M	$173.0M	$18.10B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$462.3M	$113.7M	$178.3M	$171.8M	$12.05B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$441.8M	$122.6M	$173.4M	$173.4M	—	—

3. BUSE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BUSE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Busey Corporation (Class A) (NASDAQ: BUSE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $29.47 (+0.79% 1D, market cap $2.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BUSE ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BUSE compare to SYBT and MBIN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BUSE carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.5%. By comparison, SYBT (Stock Yards Bancorp Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 17.4x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $2.44B) and MBIN (Merchants Bancorp) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 10.9x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $2.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBIN leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while SYBT leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BUSE?

Per BUSE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000314489), First Busey Corporation (Class A) generated $719.6M in revenue (+55.7% YoY), $135.3M in net income, and $173.0M in free cash flow against $18.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BUSE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BUSE last traded at $29.47 (+0.79% on volume of 848,917 shares), positioning the stock -1.31% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.86) and +5.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.93). Across its 52-week range of $22.12 to $31.70, BUSE sits at the 76.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($28.26 to $30.68).

BUSE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell BUSE stock right now?

First Busey Corporation (Class A) (BUSE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is BUSE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BUSE's 12-month base price target is $30.93 (range $24.13 to $36.5), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: BUSE RQD Cockpit BUSE 12M Forecast BUSE Earnings & Move BUSE Dividends & DRIP BUSE Insiders & 13F BUSE Whale Options BUSE Profit Sankey BUSE News & Why