Stock Ratings / Health Care / ZBIO / options

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Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$28.76 -0.04% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.70

Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.87B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.70 (-0.20%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ZBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ZBIO SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 49% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$27.26-8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$24.84+8.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$26.87+7% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$28.76-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ZBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ZBIO currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($29.48) and Max Pain ($30.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $46.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ZBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ZBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ZBIO)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ZBIO.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ZBIO)

✓Walkthrough of ZBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ZBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +48.86%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $28.35H $29.11L $27.91C $28.76VOL 358.1K

RES: $33.71SUP: $23.36SMA50: $29.48SMA200: $24.95

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ZBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ZBIO Butterfly Map → + Track ZBIO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +100.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ZBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ZBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ZBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ZBIO)

Health Care Rank #662 of 1016 ⚔️ MLYS vs ZBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ZBIO vs. MLYS, TRAX, ADRX, BRVE)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) ranks #662 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #276 by equity capitalization ($1.87B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZBIO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MLYS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ADRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ZBIO at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ZBIO ACTIVE Zenas BioPharma Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.04%	$1.87B	Benchmark Subject
MLYS Mineralys Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-28.4%	-0.65%	$1.88B	/mlys-vs-zbio →
TRAX First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.08%	$1.90B	/trax-vs-zbio →
ADRX ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.56%	$1.91B	/adrx-vs-zbio →
BRVE Braveheart Bio Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-2.62%	$1.91B	/brve-vs-zbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001953926

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $10.0M (+100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.0M , and -80.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$377.7M, operating cash flow of -$172.3M, and free cash flow of -$172.4M (-43.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ZBIO closed FY2025 with $383.6M in total assets against $78.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.79, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$10.0M	-$377.7M	-$172.3M	-$172.4M	$383.6M	$78.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.0M	-$157.0M	-$119.7M	-$119.8M	$370.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$50.0M	-$37.1M	-$30.5M	-$30.5M	—	—

3. ZBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ZBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Zenas BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: ZBIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $28.76 (-0.04% 1D, market cap $1.87B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ZBIO ranks #662 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ZBIO compare to MLYS and TRAX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ZBIO carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MLYS (Mineralys Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.4%, cap $1.88B) and TRAX (First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZBIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZBIO?

Per ZBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001953926), Zenas BioPharma Inc. generated $10.0M in revenue (+100.0% YoY), -$377.7M in net income, and -$172.4M in free cash flow against $383.6M in total assets and $78.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ZBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ZBIO last traded at $28.76 (-0.04% on volume of 373,036 shares), positioning the stock -2.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.48) and +15.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.95). Across its 52-week range of $13.50 to $44.60, ZBIO sits at the 49.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($25.16 to $32.36).

ZBIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ZBIO's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ZBIO.

Direct Sub-Reports: ZBIO RQD Cockpit ZBIO 12M Forecast ZBIO Earnings & Move ZBIO Dividends & DRIP ZBIO Insiders & 13F ZBIO Whale Options ZBIO Profit Sankey ZBIO News & Why