Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / VRRM / earnings

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Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$3.34 +6.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.37

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $507.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.37 (+0.96%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 14% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VRRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VRRM SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.94-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$2.86+8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$3.09+8.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$3.34+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VRRM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, VRRM faces multiple-compression risk if 3.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($3.43) or 200D SMA ($9.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.39) toward Bear Floor ($2.64).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VRRM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VRRM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.42 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

VRRM Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 61/100

Trailing EPS: $0.90 • YoY Revenue Growth: 11.4%

Model Bullish Setup (61/100)Model Risk Weight (39/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$979.1M	$136.6M	$136.7M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$879.2M	$31.4M	$152.8M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$817.3M	$57.0M	$206.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating VRRM & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on VRRM
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VRRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -77.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $3.12H $3.34L $2.60C $3.34VOL 13.08M

RES: $7.80SUP: $2.40SMA50: $3.43SMA200: $9.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VRRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VRRM Butterfly Map → + Track VRRM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VRRM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VRRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VRRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VRRM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #385 of 1011 ⚔️ GMRS vs VRRM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VRRM vs. GMRS, SPCE, VTOL, FLYX)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) ranks #385 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #588 by equity capitalization ($507.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRRM leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while VRRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VTOL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with VRRM at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VRRM ACTIVE Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)	C-	61/100	3.7x	—	15.1%	+6.37%	$507.6M	Benchmark Subject
GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+4.58%	$616.9M	/gmrs-vs-vrrm →
SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.	E	32/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	+2.63%	$413.9M	/spce-vs-vrrm →
VTOL Bristow Group Inc.	B	72/100	9.7x	—	8.9%	+1.47%	$1.25B	/vtol-vs-vrrm →
FLYX flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	15.0%	-35.0%	0.00%	$130.0M	/flyx-vs-vrrm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001682745

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) reported GAAP revenue of $979.1M (+11.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $879.2M , and +19.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $136.6M, operating cash flow of $255.8M, and free cash flow of $136.7M (-10.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, VRRM closed FY2025 with $1.65B in total assets against $1.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$979.1M	$136.6M	$255.8M	$136.7M	$1.65B	$1.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$879.2M	$31.4M	$223.6M	$152.8M	$1.61B	$1.03B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$817.3M	$57.0M	$206.1M	$206.1M	—	—

3. VRRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VRRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (NASDAQ: VRRM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $3.34 (+6.37% 1D, market cap $507.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VRRM ranks #385 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VRRM compare to GMRS and SPCE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), VRRM carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.1%. By comparison, GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $616.9M) and SPCE (Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $413.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRRM?

Per VRRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001682745), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) generated $979.1M in revenue (+11.4% YoY), $136.6M in net income, and $136.7M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $1.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VRRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VRRM last traded at $3.34 (+6.37% on volume of 3,806,445 shares), positioning the stock -2.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.43) and -64.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.51). Across its 52-week range of $2.60 to $23.51, VRRM sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.92 to $3.76).

VRRM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is VRRM's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is VRRM stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for VRRM, spanning a range between $2.92 and $3.76.

Direct Sub-Reports: VRRM RQD Cockpit VRRM 12M Forecast VRRM Earnings & Move VRRM Dividends & DRIP VRRM Insiders & 13F VRRM Whale Options VRRM Profit Sankey VRRM News & Why