Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / VRRM

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Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.34 +6.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.37

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $507.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.37 (+0.96%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 14% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VRRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VRRM SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.94-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$2.86+8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$3.09+8.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$3.34+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VRRM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, VRRM faces multiple-compression risk if 3.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($3.43) or 200D SMA ($9.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.39) toward Bear Floor ($2.64).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VRRM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VRRM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

38.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.26>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE4% OF RANGE

L: $3$3.34H: $24

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on VRRM

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

15.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.26 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VRRM

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (VRRM Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VRRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -77.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $3.12H $3.34L $2.60C $3.34VOL 13.08M

RES: $7.80SUP: $2.40SMA50: $3.43SMA200: $9.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VRRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VRRM Butterfly Map → + Track VRRM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VRRM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VRRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VRRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VRRM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #385 of 1011 ⚔️ GMRS vs VRRM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VRRM vs. GMRS, SPCE, VTOL, FLYX)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) ranks #385 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #588 by equity capitalization ($507.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRRM leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while VRRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VTOL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with VRRM at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VRRM ACTIVE Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)	C-	61/100	3.7x	—	15.1%	+6.37%	$507.6M	Benchmark Subject
GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+4.58%	$616.9M	/gmrs-vs-vrrm →
SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.	E	32/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	+2.63%	$413.9M	/spce-vs-vrrm →
VTOL Bristow Group Inc.	B	72/100	9.7x	—	8.9%	+1.47%	$1.25B	/vtol-vs-vrrm →
FLYX flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	15.0%	-35.0%	0.00%	$130.0M	/flyx-vs-vrrm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001682745

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) reported GAAP revenue of $979.1M (+11.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $879.2M , and +19.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $136.6M, operating cash flow of $255.8M, and free cash flow of $136.7M (-10.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, VRRM closed FY2025 with $1.65B in total assets against $1.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$979.1M	$136.6M	$255.8M	$136.7M	$1.65B	$1.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$879.2M	$31.4M	$223.6M	$152.8M	$1.61B	$1.03B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$817.3M	$57.0M	$206.1M	$206.1M	—	—

3. VRRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VRRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (NASDAQ: VRRM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $3.34 (+6.37% 1D, market cap $507.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VRRM ranks #385 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VRRM compare to GMRS and SPCE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), VRRM carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.1%. By comparison, GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $616.9M) and SPCE (Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $413.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRRM?

Per VRRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001682745), Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) generated $979.1M in revenue (+11.4% YoY), $136.6M in net income, and $136.7M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $1.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VRRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VRRM last traded at $3.34 (+6.37% on volume of 3,806,445 shares), positioning the stock -2.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.43) and -64.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.51). Across its 52-week range of $2.60 to $23.51, VRRM sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.92 to $3.76).

VRRM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell VRRM stock right now?

Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) (VRRM) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 4x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is VRRM's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VRRM's 12-month base price target is $3.39 (range $2.64 to $24.69), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: VRRM RQD Cockpit VRRM 12M Forecast VRRM Earnings & Move VRRM Dividends & DRIP VRRM Insiders & 13F VRRM Whale Options VRRM Profit Sankey VRRM News & Why