Stock Ratings / Industrials / VATE / insiders

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INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

Q: Are VATE insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies VATE leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

$5.80 -3.49% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.75

INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $79.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.75 (-0.82%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 11.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VATE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VATE SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.8% FCF Margin ($146.6M FCF) & 16% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$7.22-16.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$6.00-6.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$5.60+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.80-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VATE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VATE currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (16% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.02) and Max Pain ($6.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VATE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VATE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

VATE Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (VATE)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on VATE. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VATE)

✓Walkthrough of VATE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VATE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.67%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $5.57H $5.89L $5.46C $5.80VOL 132.5K

RES: $6.33SUP: $5.34SMA50: $7.02SMA200: $8.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VATE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VATE Butterfly Map → + Track VATE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VATE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VATE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VATE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VATE)

Industrials Rank #346 of 485 ⚔️ ZKIN vs VATE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (VATE vs. ZKIN, AIOS, ZJK, TPCS)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) ranks #346 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #384 by equity capitalization ($79.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VATE leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while VATE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 16.0% gross margin. ZJK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with VATE at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VATE ACTIVE INNOVATE Corp.	D	45/100	—	16.0%	85.0%	-3.49%	$79.1M	Benchmark Subject
ZKIN ZK International Group Co. Ltd Ordinary Share	D-	41/100	—	5.7%	—	-7.28%	$80.2M	/zkin-vs-vate →
AIOS AIOS Tech Inc. (Class A)	D+	54/100	—	72.0%	29.9%	-0.95%	$77.6M	/aios-vs-vate →
ZJK ZJK Industrial Co. Ltd. (Class A)	C	65/100	—	43.7%	25.7%	-6.25%	$96.5M	/zjk-vs-vate →
TPCS TechPrecision Corporation	E	30/100	—	15.7%	-10.6%	+0.73%	$56.0M	/tpcs-vs-vate →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001006837

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.25B (+12.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.11B , and -12.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$60.6M, operating cash flow of $146.6M, and free cash flow of $146.6M (+1580.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, VATE closed FY2025 with $950.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.25B	-$60.6M	$146.6M	$146.6M	$950.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.11B	-$34.6M	$9.1M	-$9.9M	$891.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.42B	-$35.2M	$26.5M	$26.5M	—	—

3. VATE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, INNOVATE Corp. (NYSE: VATE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $5.80 (-3.49% 1D, market cap $79.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, VATE ranks #346 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VATE compare to ZKIN and AIOS in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), VATE carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 16.0%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, ZKIN (ZK International Group Co. Ltd Ordinary Share) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $80.2M) and AIOS (AIOS Tech Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 29.9%, cap $77.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VATE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while VATE leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VATE?

Per VATE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001006837), INNOVATE Corp. generated $1.25B in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$60.6M in net income, and $146.6M in free cash flow against $950.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (16% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VATE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VATE last traded at $5.80 (-3.49% on volume of 73,133 shares), positioning the stock -17.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.02) and -35.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.75 to $21.30, VATE sits at the 11.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.08 to $6.52).

VATE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are VATE insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies VATE leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: VATE RQD Cockpit VATE 12M Forecast VATE Earnings & Move VATE Dividends & DRIP VATE Insiders & 13F VATE Whale Options VATE Profit Sankey VATE News & Why