CATALYSTChartMill • 3d ago
Uranium Stocks’ Relief Rally Faces an Earnings-Season Reality CheckUranium stocks have bounced, but upcoming earnings will test whether the rebound can survive weak growth, profitability and balance-sheet risks.
Why URG Stock dropped -2.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.90 -2.38% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.89
Ur Energy Inc (Canada) (URG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $356.6M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is URG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Ur Energy Inc (Canada) (NYSE: URG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $0.90 (-2.38% 1D, market cap $356.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, URG ranks #208 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does URG compare to VGZ and VOXR in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), URG carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 0.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VGZ (Vista Gold Corp) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $376.6M) and VOXR (Vox Royalty Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $337.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IDR leads on earnings multiple (19.6x) while IDR leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for URG?
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Per URG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001375205), Ur Energy Inc (Canada) generated $27.2M in revenue (-19.3% YoY), -$74.9M in net income, and -$66.7M in free cash flow against $272.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.89 (-0.62%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for URG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY URG SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (29% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 8% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$1.01-15.8% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$0.85-4.7% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$0.81+11.1% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D-$0.90-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a URG Turnaround Squeeze
While URG currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.13) and Max Pain ($0.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.26.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $URG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “URG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why URG Stock dropped -2.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ur Energy Inc (Canada) (URG) dropped -2.38% to $0.90, trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($0.79 – $2.15). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($0.79 – $2.15) with RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.90 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 0.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live URG Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Ur-Energy Announces 120-Hole Drill Program to Unlock Growth Potential at Lost Creek South, WyomingProgram to focus on near-mine expansion and high-priority regional targets as part of multi-asset growth strategyCASPER, WY / ACCESS Newswire / October 29, 2026 / (NYSE American:URG)(TSX:URE) ("Ur-Energy" or the "Company
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
Top nuclear stocks to watch amid sector pullback, says B RileyInvesting.com -- Nuclear and uranium stocks have declined an average of 43% since the Russell 2000's peak on August 14, compared to the broader index's 8% decline, according to a recent note from B Riley Securities analy
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 4d ago
B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Ur-Energy, Lowers Price Target to $2B. Riley Securities analyst Nick Giles maintains Ur-Energy (AMEX:URG) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $2.5 to $2.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring URG)
- ✓Walkthrough of URG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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URG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.72%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $0.86H $0.90L $0.84C $0.90VOL 7.60M
RES: $0.90SUP: $0.75SMA50: $1.13SMA200: $1.45
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
URG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -19.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on URG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for URG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for URG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (URG)
Materials Rank #208 of 270
⚔️ VGZ vs URG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (URG vs. VGZ, VOXR, TRX, IDR)
Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ur Energy Inc (Canada) (URG) ranks #208 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #191 by equity capitalization ($356.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IDR leads on earnings valuation at 19.6x trailing P/E, while IDR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 61.8% gross margin. IDR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with URG at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URG
ACTIVE
Ur Energy Inc (Canada) | D- | 42/100 | — | 0.3% | -35.0% | -2.38% | $356.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| VGZ Vista Gold Corp | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.44% | $376.6M | /vgz-vs-urg → |
| VOXR Vox Royalty Corp. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.61% | $337.1M | /voxr-vs-urg → |
| TRX TRX Gold Corporation | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.86% | $334.0M | /trx-vs-urg → |
| IDR Idaho Strategic Resources Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 19.6x | 61.8% | 11.4% | -1.66% | $327.1M | /idr-vs-urg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001375205In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ur Energy Inc (Canada) (URG) reported GAAP revenue of $27.2M (-19.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $33.7M , and +53.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$74.9M, operating cash flow of -$43.1M, and free cash flow of -$66.7M (+17.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, URG closed FY2025 with $272.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $27.2M | -$74.9M | -$43.1M | -$66.7M | $272.5M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $33.7M | -$53.2M | -$71.9M | -$81.0M | $194.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $17.7M | -$30.7M | -$17.0M | -$17.0M | — | — |
3. URG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs URG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ur Energy Inc (Canada) (NYSE: URG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $0.90 (-2.38% 1D, market cap $356.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, URG ranks #208 in composite RQD confidence.
How does URG compare to VGZ and VOXR in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), URG carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 0.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VGZ (Vista Gold Corp) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $376.6M) and VOXR (Vox Royalty Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $337.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IDR leads on earnings multiple (19.6x) while IDR leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for URG?
Per URG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001375205), Ur Energy Inc (Canada) generated $27.2M in revenue (-19.3% YoY), -$74.9M in net income, and -$66.7M in free cash flow against $272.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is URG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
URG last traded at $0.90 (-2.38% on volume of 8,689,201 shares), positioning the stock -20.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.13) and -37.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.45). Across its 52-week range of $0.79 to $2.15, URG sits at the 8.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.01).
URG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is URG stock moving today?
Why URG Stock dropped -2.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.