Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-02, Upstream Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $3.41 (+4.28% 1D, market cap $179.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, UPB ranks #475 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), UPB carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SION (Sionna Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.3%, cap $180.8M) and ADAG (Adagene Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $177.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UPB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ORMP leads on capital efficiency (-7.8% ROIC).
Per UPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002022626), Upstream Bio Inc. generated $2.9M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), -$143.4M in net income, and -$133.4M in free cash flow against $353.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While UPB currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.93) and Max Pain ($3.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $35.36.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) surged +4.28% to $3.41, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2.68 – $33.68). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +20.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPB today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) ranks #475 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #590 by equity capitalization ($179.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UPB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ORMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -7.8% ROIC and 0.7% gross margin. ANTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with UPB at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPB
ACTIVE
Upstream Bio Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +4.28% | $179.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| SION Sionna Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -28.3% | -3.25% | $180.8M | /sion-vs-upb → |
| ADAG Adagene Inc. | E | 30/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -6.34% | $177.0M | /adag-vs-upb → |
| ANTX AN2 Therapeutics Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.41% | $177.0M | /antx-vs-upb → |
| ORMP Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D- | 41/100 | — | 0.7% | -7.8% | -2.84% | $176.0M | /ormp-vs-upb → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.9M (+20.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.4M , and +19.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$143.4M, operating cash flow of -$133.3M, and free cash flow of -$133.4M (-123.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPB closed FY2025 with $353.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.01, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.9M | -$143.4M | -$133.3M | -$133.4M | $353.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.4M | -$62.8M | -$59.2M | -$59.7M | $481.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.4M | -$20.5M | -$37.9M | -$37.9M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-02, Upstream Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $3.41 (+4.28% 1D, market cap $179.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, UPB ranks #475 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), UPB carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SION (Sionna Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.3%, cap $180.8M) and ADAG (Adagene Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $177.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UPB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ORMP leads on capital efficiency (-7.8% ROIC).
Per UPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002022626), Upstream Bio Inc. generated $2.9M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), -$143.4M in net income, and -$133.4M in free cash flow against $353.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
UPB last traded at $3.41 (+4.28% on volume of 946,131 shares), positioning the stock -30.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.93) and -63.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.27). Across its 52-week range of $2.68 to $33.68, UPB sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.98 to $3.84).
Why UPB Stock surged +4.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, UPB scores 42 out of 100, earning a D- and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 8 out of 20, reflecting a ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 12 out of 20, covering institutional accumulation and options positioning. The insider conviction pillar scores 3 out of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 11 out of 20, tied to a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 8 out of 20, referencing an Altman Z of 6.01, a Piotroski F of 3 out of 9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5.
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the lowest-scoring pillars point to weak internal cash generation and minimal insider conviction. The balance sheet metrics are comparatively less weak than the earnings and cash-flow metrics. Upside drivers would need to come from outside the current operating profile, since the rating reflects negative returns on capital and zero free-cash-flow yield. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to frame precisely because the source data omits earnings-based multiples. Investors should weigh the rating as a diagnostic snapshot rather than a forecast.
Upstream Bio Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the profile, the company carries a market capitalization of $0.2B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue model. Reported revenue across the three periods is small, at $2.4M to $2.9M.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $2.9M | $-160.4M | $-143.4M | N/A | $-133.4M | $101.6M | N/A |
| FY 2024 | $2.4M | $-77.8M | $-62.8M | N/A | $-59.7M | $325.9M | N/A |
| FY 2023 | $2.4M | $-40.1M | $-20.5M | N/A | $-37.9M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, operating and net losses widened across the reported periods, and free cash flow was negative in each year shown. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, net margin is -60%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 6.01, the Piotroski F-Score is 3 out of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $325.9M in FY 2024 to $101.6M in FY 2025.
Per the recent news wire, five items reference UPB. Two are tagged CATALYST, as a kalkine.ca report on pre-market gainers and a second report describing a 6.79% climb to $2.99 pressing against $3.14 resistance. Two are tagged MARKET WIRE: a TradingView item citing a Q3'26 revenue estimate of 522.46K USD, and a MarketBeat options chain item. One item is tagged RISK WATCH, describing an 18.10% fall to $2.76 as shares tested key support. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for the company.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the UPB (Upstream Bio Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 42/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UPB, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Upstream Bio Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UPB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.41 (52-wk range $2.68 - $33.68), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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