Stock Ratings / Health Care / UPB / financials

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Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$3.41 +4.28% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.43

Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $179.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UPB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Upstream Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $3.41 (+4.28% 1D, market cap $179.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, UPB ranks #475 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UPB compare to SION and ADAG in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), UPB carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SION (Sionna Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.3%, cap $180.8M) and ADAG (Adagene Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $177.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UPB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ORMP leads on capital efficiency (-7.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPB?

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Per UPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002022626), Upstream Bio Inc. generated $2.9M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), -$143.4M in net income, and -$133.4M in free cash flow against $353.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.43 (+0.58%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UPB SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$4.70-41.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.76-0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.74+24.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.41-7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UPB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UPB currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.93) and Max Pain ($3.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $35.36.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UPB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How UPB Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.4M

FY24

Rev $2.4M

FY25

Rev $2.9M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$2.9M	52%	-80%	-$143.4M	-$133.4M	-45%
FY 2024	$2.4M	52%	-80%	-$62.8M	-$59.7M	-42.7%
FY 2023	$2.4M	52%	-80%	-$20.5M	-$37.9M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UPB)

✓Walkthrough of UPB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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UPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.85%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.26H $3.42L $3.15C $3.41VOL 946.1K

RES: $5.98SUP: $2.58SMA50: $4.93SMA200: $9.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPB Butterfly Map → + Track UPB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPB)

Health Care Rank #475 of 1016 ⚔️ SION vs UPB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (UPB vs. SION, ADAG, ANTX, ORMP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) ranks #475 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #590 by equity capitalization ($179.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UPB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ORMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -7.8% ROIC and 0.7% gross margin. ANTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with UPB at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPB ACTIVE Upstream Bio Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.28%	$179.1M	Benchmark Subject
SION Sionna Therapeutics Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-28.3%	-3.25%	$180.8M	/sion-vs-upb →
ADAG Adagene Inc.	E	30/100	—	—	-35.0%	-6.34%	$177.0M	/adag-vs-upb →
ANTX AN2 Therapeutics Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.41%	$177.0M	/antx-vs-upb →
ORMP Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	41/100	—	0.7%	-7.8%	-2.84%	$176.0M	/ormp-vs-upb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002022626

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.9M (+20.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.4M , and +19.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$143.4M, operating cash flow of -$133.3M, and free cash flow of -$133.4M (-123.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPB closed FY2025 with $353.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.01, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.9M	-$143.4M	-$133.3M	-$133.4M	$353.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.4M	-$62.8M	-$59.2M	-$59.7M	$481.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.4M	-$20.5M	-$37.9M	-$37.9M	—	—

3. UPB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UPB compare to SION and ADAG in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPB?

Where is UPB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPB last traded at $3.41 (+4.28% on volume of 946,131 shares), positioning the stock -30.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.93) and -63.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.27). Across its 52-week range of $2.68 to $33.68, UPB sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.98 to $3.84).

UPB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), UPB converted $2.9M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: UPB RQD Cockpit UPB 12M Forecast UPB Earnings & Move UPB Dividends & DRIP UPB Insiders & 13F UPB Whale Options UPB Profit Sankey UPB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UPB — Upstream Bio Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:41:52Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, UPB scores 42 out of 100, earning a D- and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 8 out of 20, reflecting a ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 12 out of 20, covering institutional accumulation and options positioning. The insider conviction pillar scores 3 out of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 11 out of 20, tied to a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 8 out of 20, referencing an Altman Z of 6.01, a Piotroski F of 3 out of 9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the lowest-scoring pillars point to weak internal cash generation and minimal insider conviction. The balance sheet metrics are comparatively less weak than the earnings and cash-flow metrics. Upside drivers would need to come from outside the current operating profile, since the rating reflects negative returns on capital and zero free-cash-flow yield. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to frame precisely because the source data omits earnings-based multiples. Investors should weigh the rating as a diagnostic snapshot rather than a forecast.

Business

Upstream Bio Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the profile, the company carries a market capitalization of $0.2B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue model. Reported revenue across the three periods is small, at $2.4M to $2.9M.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$2.9M	$-160.4M	$-143.4M	N/A	$-133.4M	$101.6M	N/A
FY 2024	$2.4M	$-77.8M	$-62.8M	N/A	$-59.7M	$325.9M	N/A
FY 2023	$2.4M	$-40.1M	$-20.5M	N/A	$-37.9M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, operating and net losses widened across the reported periods, and free cash flow was negative in each year shown. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, net margin is -60%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 6.01, the Piotroski F-Score is 3 out of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $325.9M in FY 2024 to $101.6M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, five items reference UPB. Two are tagged CATALYST, as a kalkine.ca report on pre-market gainers and a second report describing a 6.79% climb to $2.99 pressing against $3.14 resistance. Two are tagged MARKET WIRE: a TradingView item citing a Q3'26 revenue estimate of 522.46K USD, and a MarketBeat options chain item. One item is tagged RISK WATCH, describing an 18.10% fall to $2.76 as shares tested key support. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for the company.

Open Questions

What specific products or clinical programs drive the revenue base and what is the commercial pipeline?
What is the cause of the cash decline from $325.9M to $101.6M, and what is the current runway?
What is the outstanding debt balance, since the debt field is reported as N/A for all periods?
Why are EPS, P/E, EV/EBITDA, and forward multiples unavailable, and what share count underlies the $179.1M market cap?
What is the source of the 52-week range difference between $2.68 and $33.68 relative to the current $3.41 price?

UPB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UPB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST kalkine.ca • 6h ago

Which of Upstream Bio (NASDAQ:UPB), Biofrontera (NASDAQ:BFRI), Aldeyra Therapeutics (NASDAQ:ALDX), KALA BIO (NASDAQ:KALA) or Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO) Is the Best Biotech or Pharma Gainer in Pre-Market?

kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 9h ago

Top Premarket Gainers

Yahoo Finance report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 12h ago

UPB Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 522.46K USD

TradingView report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 15h ago

Upstream Bio (UPB) Options Chain & Prices 2026 $UPB

MarketBeat report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.siam.in/ • 18h ago

Upstream Bio (UPB) Climbs 6.79% to $2.99, Pressing Against $3.14 Resistance - High Beta Stocks

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 21h ago

Upstream Bio (UPB) Falls 18.10% to $2.76 as Shares Test Key Support - Equity Put Call

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Why Is Upstream Bio (NASDAQ:UPB) Up 13.06% Pre-Market, and Can the Rally Hold at the Open?

kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

Upstream Bio (UPB) Shares Edge Higher: Stock Gains 3.30% to $4.70 - Inverse ETF Flow

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UPB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.41?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UPB 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.00 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UPB (D- • RQD 42/100) a Buy at $3.41?

Welcome to the UPB (Upstream Bio Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 42/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.59 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $3.41

Pump the brakes on UPB — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UPB, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Upstream Bio Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.33 (+27.0%)

Spot @ $3.41

UPB cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UPB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.41 (52-wk range $2.68 - $33.68), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.