Stock Ratings / Industrials / TWIN / options

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Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$25.29 -0.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.21

Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $367.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.21 (-0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TWIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TWIN SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 74% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.13 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$26.26-6.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$24.47-0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$24.35+3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$25.29+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TWIN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, TWIN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 25.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.05) or 200D SMA ($20.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.52) toward Bear Floor ($19.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TWIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TWIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TWIN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TWIN.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TWIN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TWIN
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TWIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +53.09%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $25.01H $25.32L $23.88C $25.29VOL 52.5K

RES: $31.12SUP: $23.16SMA50: $25.05SMA200: $20.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TWIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TWIN Butterfly Map → + Track TWIN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TWIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TWIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TWIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TWIN)

Industrials Rank #169 of 485 ⚔️ NNBR vs TWIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (TWIN vs. NNBR, QSI, CUB, SES)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #316 by equity capitalization ($367.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NNBR leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while TWIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.9% ROIC and 27.6% gross margin. TWIN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TWIN ACTIVE Twin Disc Incorporated	C-	60/100	—	27.6%	3.9%	-0.71%	$367.7M	Benchmark Subject
NNBR NN Inc.	E	31/100	10.9x	—	-8.5%	+4.21%	$371.2M	/nnbr-vs-twin →
QSI Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)	D-	37/100	—	47.3%	-35.0%	+1.74%	$383.0M	/qsi-vs-twin →
CUB Lionheart Holdings (Class A)	D-	40/100	38.8x	—	-4.0%	+0.09%	$347.5M	/cub-vs-twin →
SES SES AI Corporation (Class A)	D-	41/100	—	53.8%	-35.0%	+9.74%	$322.5M	/ses-vs-twin →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0000100378

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) reported GAAP revenue of $340.7M (+15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $295.1M ) , GAAP net income of -$1.9M, operating cash flow of $24.0M, and free cash flow of $8.8M (-64.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TWIN closed FY2025 with $384.0M in total assets against $41.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.13, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$340.7M	-$1.9M	$24.0M	$8.8M	$384.0M	$41.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$295.1M	$11.0M	$33.7M	$25.0M	$307.4M	$22.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$0	$10.4M	$22.9M	$22.9M	—	—

3. TWIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TWIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Twin Disc Incorporated (NASDAQ: TWIN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $25.29 (-0.71% 1D, market cap $367.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, TWIN ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TWIN compare to NNBR and QSI in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), TWIN carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 27.6%, and ROIC of 3.9%. By comparison, NNBR (NN Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E 10.9x, ROIC -8.5%, cap $371.2M) and QSI (Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $383.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNBR leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while TWIN leads on capital efficiency (3.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWIN?

Per TWIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000100378), Twin Disc Incorporated generated $340.7M in revenue (+15.5% YoY), -$1.9M in net income, and $8.8M in free cash flow against $384.0M in total assets and $41.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TWIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TWIN last traded at $25.29 (-0.71% on volume of 55,614 shares), positioning the stock +0.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.05) and +23.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($20.51). Across its 52-week range of $14.22 to $29.24, TWIN sits at the 73.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($22.81 to $27.77).