Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-01, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $0.86 (-2.73% 1D, market cap $11.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CLRB (Cellectar Biosciences Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.5M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
While TVRD currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.38) and Max Pain ($0.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.97.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) dropped -2.73% to $0.86, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.77 – $5.69). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Chardan Capital analyst Gautam Chukka initiates coverage on Tvardi Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TVRD) with a Buy rating and announces Price Target of $8.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TVRD today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TVRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) ranks #652 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #884 by equity capitalization ($11.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TVRD leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TVRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CALC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with TVRD at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVRD
ACTIVE
Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.73% | $11.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| CLRB Cellectar Biosciences Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.61% | $11.5M | /clrb-vs-tvrd → |
| GTBP GT Biopharma Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.63% | $11.5M | /gtbp-vs-tvrd → |
| ASBP Aspire-Lakewood Holdings Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | -1.9% | -35.0% | -4.50% | $11.9M | /asbp-vs-tvrd → |
| CALC CalciMedica Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +5.42% | $11.9M | /calc-vs-tvrd → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.1M , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.2M, operating cash flow of -$23.5M, and free cash flow of -$23.5M (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TVRD closed FY2025 with $32.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$18.2M | -$23.5M | -$23.5M | $32.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $7.1M | -$29.4M | -$18.3M | -$19.4M | $35.2M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $21.0M | -$11.8M | -$92.1M | -$92.1M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $0.86 (-2.73% 1D, market cap $11.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CLRB (Cellectar Biosciences Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.5M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
TVRD last traded at $0.86 (-2.73% on volume of 111,919 shares), positioning the stock -37.68% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.38) and -68.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.76). Across its 52-week range of $0.77 to $5.69, TVRD sits at the 1.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.2 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.97).
Why TVRD Stock dropped -2.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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