Stock Ratings / Health Care / TVRD / earnings

CLRB (37) GTBP (46) ASBP (33) CALC (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

Q: When is TVRD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

Q: How much is TVRD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for TVRD, spanning a range between $1 and $0.97.

$0.86 -2.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.85

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $11.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.85 (-0.68%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TVRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TVRD SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$1.03-1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$1.01-6.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$0.94-8.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.86-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TVRD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TVRD currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.38) and Max Pain ($0.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TVRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TVRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.11 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TVRD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 40/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (40/100)Model Risk Weight (60/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	-$18.2M	-$23.5M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$7.1M	-$29.4M	-$19.4M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$21.0M	-$11.8M	-$92.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TVRD)

✓Walkthrough of TVRD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TVRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -72.70%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $0.87H $0.93L $0.77C $0.86VOL 154.9K

RES: $1.10SUP: $0.30SMA50: $1.38SMA200: $2.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TVRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TVRD Butterfly Map → + Track TVRD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TVRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TVRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TVRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TVRD)

Health Care Rank #652 of 1016 ⚔️ CLRB vs TVRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TVRD vs. CLRB, GTBP, ASBP, CALC)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) ranks #652 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #884 by equity capitalization ($11.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TVRD leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TVRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CALC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with TVRD at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TVRD ACTIVE Tvardi Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.73%	$11.5M	Benchmark Subject
CLRB Cellectar Biosciences Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.61%	$11.5M	/clrb-vs-tvrd →
GTBP GT Biopharma Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.63%	$11.5M	/gtbp-vs-tvrd →
ASBP Aspire-Lakewood Holdings Inc.	E	33/100	—	-1.9%	-35.0%	-4.50%	$11.9M	/asbp-vs-tvrd →
CALC CalciMedica Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	-35.0%	+5.42%	$11.9M	/calc-vs-tvrd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001346830

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.1M , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.2M, operating cash flow of -$23.5M, and free cash flow of -$23.5M (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TVRD closed FY2025 with $32.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$18.2M	-$23.5M	-$23.5M	$32.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.1M	-$29.4M	-$18.3M	-$19.4M	$35.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$21.0M	-$11.8M	-$92.1M	-$92.1M	—	—

3. TVRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TVRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $0.86 (-2.73% 1D, market cap $11.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TVRD compare to CLRB and GTBP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CLRB (Cellectar Biosciences Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.5M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TVRD?

Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TVRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TVRD last traded at $0.86 (-2.73% on volume of 111,919 shares), positioning the stock -37.68% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.38) and -68.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.76). Across its 52-week range of $0.77 to $5.69, TVRD sits at the 1.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.2 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.97).

TVRD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TVRD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TVRD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for TVRD, spanning a range between $1 and $0.97.

Direct Sub-Reports: TVRD RQD Cockpit TVRD 12M Forecast TVRD Earnings & Move TVRD Dividends & DRIP TVRD Insiders & 13F TVRD Whale Options TVRD Profit Sankey TVRD News & Why