Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Whale Options Tug-of-War, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps
$403.30 -0.23% NASDAQ • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.58T
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+14.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:58% Call Buyers ($55.2M)
42% PutsMax Pain: $350.00
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
58% Calls / 42% Puts
Put/Call Ratio: 1.14x
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
$350.00
-13.22% vs. current $403.30 spot
OPTIONS-IMPLIED VOLATILITY MOVE
±8.7%
Expected event band around $403.30
Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TSLA)
$395
17,205C / 33,008P
$397.5
11,610C / 15,401P
$400
37,660C / 17,539P
$410
11,615C / 0P
$415
0C / 3,576P
Wide-Open Unusual Whale Options Sweep Tape (TSLA)
| Contract / Exp | Type | Strike | Vol / OI | $ Premium | IV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA261102C00400000EXP 2026-11-02 | CALL | $400 | 19.1x | $12.2M | 32.4% |
| TSLA261102P00395000EXP 2026-11-02 | PUT | $395 | 16x | $5.7M | 33.5% |
| TSLA261102P00400000EXP 2026-11-02 | PUT | $400 | 9.6x | $8.4M | 32.4% |
| TSLA261102P00397500EXP 2026-11-02 | PUT | $398 | 25.9x | $5.9M | 33.1% |
| TSLA261106P00395000EXP 2026-11-06 | PUT | $395 | 5.4x | $10.6M | 47.9% |
| TSLA261102C00395000EXP 2026-11-02 | CALL | $395 | 6.8x | $9.2M | 33% |
| TSLA261106C00400000EXP 2026-11-06 | CALL | $400 | 2.5x | $12.4M | 46.8% |
| TSLA261106C00410000EXP 2026-11-06 | CALL | $410 | 2.3x | $7.1M | 45.6% |
| TSLA261102C00397500EXP 2026-11-02 | CALL | $398 | 65.2x | $7.0M | 33.4% |
| TSLA261106C00395000EXP 2026-11-06 | CALL | $395 | 3.7x | $7.3M | 47.5% |
| TSLA261204P00415000EXP 2026-12-04 | PUT | $415 | 8.2x | $10.1M | 40.9% |
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TSLA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.30%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $383.8H $410.9L $383.7C $399.8VOL 198.52M
RES: $383.0SUP: $367.4SMA50: $369.6SMA200: $385.3
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TSLA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
+ 0.86% YoY Shares
SEC XBRL FY2024 → FY2025: Disciplined near-zero share dilution.
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +8.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSLA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
ON → TSLA Confirmed Filing
ON Semiconductor supplies EliteSiC silicon-carbide power semiconductors and high-resolution CMOS automotive image sensors enabling 400V/800V EV drivetrain efficiency and vision-based ADAS.
TSLA → GM Confirmed Filing
General Motors integrated its EV lineup onto Tesla North American Charging Standard (NACS / Supercharger network), turning Tesla charging infrastructure and zero-emission regulatory credits into high-margin OEM monetization.
TSLA → RIVN Analyst Hypothesis
Tesla manufacturing scale and aggressive financing promotions establish a hard price ceiling across US premium EVs, squeezing unit gross margins at sub-scale manufacturer Rivian ahead of R2 launch.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 Curated Video: Mobile & Dedicated Power Generation for AI Clusters: Grid Bottlenecks Examined (Patrick Boyle) →
TSLA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhat is TSLA's options max pain and whale flow sentiment?
Unusual options sweeps in TSLA show 58% bullish call premium versus 42% put premium, centered near a $350 max-pain strike.