Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone
$403.30 -0.23% NASDAQ • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.58T
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+14.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:58% Call Buyers ($55.2M)
42% PutsMax Pain: $350.00
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR
Drag to Test Your TSLA Position Size: $10,000
Shares at $403.30: 24.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $416.50
$10,327
+$327 (+3.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $461.04
$11,432
+$1,432 (+14.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $499.66
$12,389
+$2,389 (+23.9%)
Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (54 Desks)
Street Historical Accuracy: 71/100● Strong Buy / Buy: 27● Hold: 22● Sell: 5
| Wall Street Firm | Stance | 12M Target | 1Y Accuracy | Track Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISIMark Mahaney / Chris McNally | STRONG BUY | $476 | 88.3% | A+ |
| Goldman SachsMark Delaney | STRONG BUY | $500 | 76.4% | B |
| JefferiesBrent Thill | OUTPERFORM | $452 | 74% | B |
| Bank of America SecuritiesJohn Murphy | STRONG BUY | $483 | 73.6% | B |
| Morgan StanleyAdam Jonas / Simeon Gutman | OUTPERFORM | $469 | 71.1% | B |
| UBSJoseph Spak | BUY | $436 | 70.4% | B |
| J.P. MorganDoug Anmuth / Ryan Brinkman | OUTPERFORM | $471 | 70.2% | B |
| BarclaysDan Levy | BUY | $417 | 62.6% | C |
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TSLA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.30%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $383.8H $410.9L $383.7C $399.8VOL 198.52M
RES: $383.0SUP: $367.4SMA50: $369.6SMA200: $385.3
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TSLA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
+ 0.86% YoY Shares
SEC XBRL FY2024 → FY2025: Disciplined near-zero share dilution.
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +8.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSLA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
ON → TSLA Confirmed Filing
ON Semiconductor supplies EliteSiC silicon-carbide power semiconductors and high-resolution CMOS automotive image sensors enabling 400V/800V EV drivetrain efficiency and vision-based ADAS.
TSLA → GM Confirmed Filing
General Motors integrated its EV lineup onto Tesla North American Charging Standard (NACS / Supercharger network), turning Tesla charging infrastructure and zero-emission regulatory credits into high-margin OEM monetization.
TSLA → RIVN Analyst Hypothesis
Tesla manufacturing scale and aggressive financing promotions establish a hard price ceiling across US premium EVs, squeezing unit gross margins at sub-scale manufacturer Rivian ahead of R2 launch.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 Curated Video: Mobile & Dedicated Power Generation for AI Clusters: Grid Bottlenecks Examined (Patrick Boyle) →
TSLA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhat is TSLA's 12-month stock price target?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $461.04 (+14.3% from $403.30), with a bull-case target of $499.66 and a bear-case floor of $416.5.
Is TSLA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?
Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TSLA C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 64/100.