CATALYSTYahoo • 1d ago
This US-Based Rare Earths Company Is Different From MostGlobal demand for rare earths remains strong. This rare earth company is hoping that a quarry in Texas can help meet that demand in the U.S.
Why TREO Stock dropped -4.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.90 -4.04% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.88
Tactical Resources Corp. (TREO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $25.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.88 (-0.92%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TREO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TREO SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 6% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 32.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$2.45-23.3% Next Q
52
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$1.88-19.7% Next Q
49
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$1.51+25.8% Next Q
47
CurrentGrade D$1.90-6.5% Hist 90D α
44
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TREO Turnaround Squeeze
While TREO currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.48) and Max Pain ($1.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.66.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TREO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TREO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TREO Stock dropped -4.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Tactical Resources Corp. (TREO) dropped -4.04% to $1.90, trading at 6% of its 52-week range ($1.4 – $9.2). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 6% of its 52-week range ($1.4 – $9.2) with RSI-14 at 32.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.90 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TREO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Why The U.S. Is So Focused On Building Its Own Rare Earths Supply ChainRare earths are more than minerals. They are critical. That’s why the U.S. is focused on securing a sovereign supply chain.
RISK WATCHBenzinga • 5d ago
Shares of precious metals stocks are trading lower as markets react to President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs.MARKET WIREBenzinga • 6d ago
12 Materials Stocks Moving In Monday's Pre-Market SessionGainers Tactical Resources (NASDAQ:TREO) shares rose 6.6% to $1.61 during Monday's pre-market session. The company's market cap stands at $22.3 million. Guardian Metal Resources (AMEX:GMTL) stock increased by
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TREO)
- ✓Walkthrough of TREO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TREO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -73.50%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $1.80H $1.93L $1.76C $1.90VOL 17.9K
RES: $1.69SUP: $0.76SMA50: $3.48SMA200: $3.55
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TREO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TREO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TREO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TREO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TREO)
Materials Rank #202 of 270
⚔️ COPR vs TREO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TREO vs. COPR, JAGU, NEXM, WWR)
Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tactical Resources Corp. (TREO) ranks #202 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #252 by equity capitalization ($25.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TREO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while WWR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. NEXM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with TREO at 44/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREO
ACTIVE
Tactical Resources Corp. | D | 44/100 | — | — | — | -4.04% | $25.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| COPR Idaho Copper Corporation | E | 34/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -10.71% | $32.9M | /copr-vs-treo → |
| JAGU Jaguar Uranium Corp. (Class A) | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -7.20% | $19.3M | /jagu-vs-treo → |
| NEXM NexMetals Mining Corp. | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -7.84% | $50.3M | /nexm-vs-treo → |
| WWR Westwater Resources Inc. | D- | 41/100 | — | — | -15.1% | -1.64% | $54.0M | /wwr-vs-treo → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-07-31 • CIK 0002041208In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31), Tactical Resources Corp. (TREO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of -$4.7M, operating cash flow of -$305.6K, and free cash flow of -$305.6K . On the balance sheet, TREO closed FY2025 with $0 in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-07-31 | $0 | -$4.7M | -$305.6K | -$305.6K | — | — |
3. TREO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TREO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Tactical Resources Corp. (NASDAQ: TREO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $1.90 (-4.04% 1D, market cap $25.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TREO ranks #202 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TREO compare to COPR and JAGU in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), TREO carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, COPR (Idaho Copper Corporation) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $32.9M) and JAGU (Jaguar Uranium Corp. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $19.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TREO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while WWR leads on capital efficiency (-15.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TREO?
Per TREO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0002041208), Tactical Resources Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$4.7M in net income, and -$305.6K in free cash flow against $0 in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TREO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TREO last traded at $1.90 (-4.04% on volume of 91,366 shares), positioning the stock -45.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.48) and -46.48% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.55). Across its 52-week range of $1.40 to $9.20, TREO sits at the 6.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.66 to $2.14).
TREO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TREO stock moving today?
Why TREO Stock dropped -4.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.