Stock Ratings / Health Care / TMCI / forecast

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Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.06 +4.76% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.09

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $329.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.09 (+0.67%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMCI SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 71% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.95-2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.87+10.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.27+18.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$5.06-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMCI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMCI currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.42) and Max Pain ($5.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.98.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMCI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMCI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TMCI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.06: 1976.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.64

$7,194

$-2,806 (-28.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.67

$9,229

$-771 (-7.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.98

$13,794

+$3,794 (+37.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$5	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$7	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$4	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMCI)

✓Walkthrough of TMCI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +179.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $5.06H $5.07L $4.35C $5.06VOL 290.6K

RES: $6.05SUP: $3.55SMA50: $4.42SMA200: $3.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMCI Butterfly Map → + Track TMCI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMCI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMCI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMCI)

Health Care Rank #609 of 1016 ⚔️ CLPT vs TMCI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMCI vs. CLPT, ANIK, EMBC, MOBI)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) ranks #609 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #510 by equity capitalization ($329.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EMBC leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while EMBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.5% ROIC and 62.6% gross margin. EMBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with TMCI at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMCI ACTIVE Treace Medical Concepts Inc.	D-	41/100	—	79.8%	-32.4%	+4.76%	$329.1M	Benchmark Subject
CLPT ClearPoint Neuro Inc.	E	34/100	—	61.4%	-35.0%	+1.23%	$342.7M	/clpt-vs-tmci →
ANIK Anika Therapeutics Inc.	D+	55/100	—	56.6%	-10.2%	+1.11%	$291.6M	/anik-vs-tmci →
EMBC Embecta Corp.	B	74/100	3.9x	62.6%	35.5%	+1.55%	$371.7M	/embc-vs-tmci →
MOBI Mobia Medical Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	—	-4.41%	$375.2M	/mobi-vs-tmci →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001630627

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) reported GAAP revenue of $212.7M (+1.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $209.4M , and +13.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$59.0M, operating cash flow of -$16.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.5M (+39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMCI closed FY2025 with $190.6M in total assets against $55.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.90, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$212.7M	-$59.0M	-$16.0M	-$29.5M	$190.6M	$55.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$209.4M	-$55.7M	-$37.2M	-$48.8M	$217.1M	$53.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$187.1M	-$50.0M	-$34.6M	-$34.6M	—	—

3. TMCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (NASDAQ: TMCI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $5.06 (+4.76% 1D, market cap $329.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMCI ranks #609 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMCI compare to CLPT and ANIK in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), TMCI carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.8%, and ROIC of -32.4%. By comparison, CLPT (ClearPoint Neuro Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $342.7M) and ANIK (Anika Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $291.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EMBC leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while EMBC leads on capital efficiency (35.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMCI?

Per TMCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001630627), Treace Medical Concepts Inc. generated $212.7M in revenue (+1.6% YoY), -$59.0M in net income, and -$29.5M in free cash flow against $190.6M in total assets and $55.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMCI last traded at $5.06 (+4.76% on volume of 368,096 shares), positioning the stock +14.48% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.42) and +56.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.24). Across its 52-week range of $1.17 to $6.65, TMCI sits at the 71.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.43 to $5.69).

TMCI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TMCI's 12-month stock price target?

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.67 (-7.7% from $5.06), with a bull-case target of $6.98 and a bear-case floor of $3.64.

Is TMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TMCI D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 41/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TMCI RQD Cockpit TMCI 12M Forecast TMCI Earnings & Move TMCI Dividends & DRIP TMCI Insiders & 13F TMCI Whale Options TMCI Profit Sankey TMCI News & Why