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Why TIL Stock advanced +0.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$6.83 +0.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.82
Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $46.3M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is TIL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Instil Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: TIL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $6.83 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $46.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TIL ranks #338 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TIL compare to LONA and IMA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TIL carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LONA (LeonaBio Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.3M) and IMA (ImageneBio Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TIL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TIL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIL?
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Per TIL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789769), Instil Bio Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$71.4M in net income, and -$36.6M in free cash flow against $203.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.82 (-0.10%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TIL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TIL SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$6.74-12.3% Next Q
43
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$5.91-1.2% Next Q
46
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$5.84+17% Next Q
48
CurrentGrade D$6.83-1.3% Hist 90D α
51
Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TIL Turnaround Squeeze
While TIL currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.96) and Max Pain ($7.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.49.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TIL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TIL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TIL Stock advanced +0.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) advanced +0.52% to $6.83, trading at 11% of its 52-week range ($5.56 – $17.61). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 11% of its 52-week range ($5.56 – $17.61) with RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $6.83 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TIL Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TIL)
- ✓Walkthrough of TIL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TIL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.41%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $6.74H $6.87L $6.51C $6.83VOL 25.2K
RES: $7.53SUP: $5.51SMA50: $6.96SMA200: $7.68
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TIL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TIL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TIL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TIL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TIL)
Health Care Rank #338 of 1016
⚔️ LONA vs TIL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TIL vs. LONA, IMA, CRBU, INMB)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) ranks #338 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #760 by equity capitalization ($46.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TIL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TIL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. TIL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 51/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIL
ACTIVE
Instil Bio Inc. | D | 51/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +0.52% | $46.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| LONA LeonaBio Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.01% | $46.3M | /lona-vs-til → |
| IMA ImageneBio Inc. | E | 24/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.57% | $46.0M | /ima-vs-til → |
| CRBU Caribou Biosciences Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -9.07% | $47.7M | /crbu-vs-til → |
| INMB INmune Bio Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +4.58% | $44.4M | /inmb-vs-til → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001789769In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$71.4M, operating cash flow of -$36.6M, and free cash flow of -$36.6M (+34.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TIL closed FY2025 with $203.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$71.4M | -$36.6M | -$36.6M | $203.5M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$74.1M | -$55.7M | -$55.7M | $263.6M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$156.1M | -$82.0M | -$82.0M | — | — |
3. TIL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TIL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Instil Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: TIL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $6.83 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $46.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TIL ranks #338 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TIL compare to LONA and IMA in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TIL carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LONA (LeonaBio Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.3M) and IMA (ImageneBio Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TIL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TIL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIL?
Per TIL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789769), Instil Bio Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$71.4M in net income, and -$36.6M in free cash flow against $203.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TIL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TIL last traded at $6.83 (+0.52% on volume of 57,669 shares), positioning the stock -1.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.96) and -11.07% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.68). Across its 52-week range of $5.56 to $17.61, TIL sits at the 10.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.98 to $7.68).
TIL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TIL stock moving today?
Why TIL Stock advanced +0.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.