Stock Ratings / Health Care / TIL / earnings

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Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$6.83 +0.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.82

Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $46.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.82 (-0.10%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TIL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TIL SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$6.74-12.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$5.91-1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$5.84+17% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.83-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TIL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TIL currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.96) and Max Pain ($7.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.49.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TIL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TIL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.85 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TIL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 51/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (51/100)Model Risk Weight (49/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	-$71.4M	-$36.6M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	-$74.1M	-$55.7M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$156.1M	-$82.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TIL)

✓Walkthrough of TIL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TIL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.41%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.74H $6.87L $6.51C $6.83VOL 25.2K

RES: $7.53SUP: $5.51SMA50: $6.96SMA200: $7.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TIL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TIL Butterfly Map → + Track TIL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TIL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TIL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TIL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TIL)

Health Care Rank #338 of 1016 ⚔️ LONA vs TIL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TIL vs. LONA, IMA, CRBU, INMB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) ranks #338 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #760 by equity capitalization ($46.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TIL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TIL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. TIL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TIL ACTIVE Instil Bio Inc.	D	51/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.52%	$46.3M	Benchmark Subject
LONA LeonaBio Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.01%	$46.3M	/lona-vs-til →
IMA ImageneBio Inc.	E	24/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.57%	$46.0M	/ima-vs-til →
CRBU Caribou Biosciences Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-35.0%	-9.07%	$47.7M	/crbu-vs-til →
INMB INmune Bio Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.58%	$44.4M	/inmb-vs-til →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001789769

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Instil Bio Inc. (TIL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$71.4M, operating cash flow of -$36.6M, and free cash flow of -$36.6M (+34.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TIL closed FY2025 with $203.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$71.4M	-$36.6M	-$36.6M	$203.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$74.1M	-$55.7M	-$55.7M	$263.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$156.1M	-$82.0M	-$82.0M	—	—

3. TIL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TIL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Instil Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: TIL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $6.83 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $46.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TIL ranks #338 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TIL compare to LONA and IMA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TIL carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LONA (LeonaBio Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.3M) and IMA (ImageneBio Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TIL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TIL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIL?

Per TIL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789769), Instil Bio Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$71.4M in net income, and -$36.6M in free cash flow against $203.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TIL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TIL last traded at $6.83 (+0.52% on volume of 57,669 shares), positioning the stock -1.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.96) and -11.07% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.68). Across its 52-week range of $5.56 to $17.61, TIL sits at the 10.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.98 to $7.68).

TIL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TIL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Instil Bio Inc. (TIL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TIL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for TIL, spanning a range between $5.98 and $7.68.

Direct Sub-Reports: TIL RQD Cockpit TIL 12M Forecast TIL Earnings & Move TIL Dividends & DRIP TIL Insiders & 13F TIL Whale Options TIL Profit Sankey TIL News & Why