MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why TCBX Stock advanced +0.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$40.41 +0.35% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.36
Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $673.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.36 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCBX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCBX SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.3% FCF Margin ($50.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$41.34+0.4% Next Q
71
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$41.50-4.1% Next Q
68
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$39.80+1.5% Next Q
66
CurrentGrade C$40.41+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCBX Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TCBX faces multiple-compression risk if 10.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.04) or 200D SMA ($40.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.32) toward Bear Floor ($32.23).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCBX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCBX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TCBX Stock advanced +0.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) advanced +0.35% to $40.41, trading at 44% of its 52-week range ($35.73 – $46.36). Solid steady margins (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 10x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 44% of its 52-week range ($35.73 – $46.36) with RSI-14 at 35 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.9% around $40.41 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $50.8M annual free cash flow.
Live TCBX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TCBX Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TCBX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.22%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $40.69H $40.69L $39.68C $40.41VOL 218.3K
RES: $43.31SUP: $39.32SMA50: $43.04SMA200: $40.87
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TCBX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-0.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCBX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCBX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCBX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCBX)
Financials Rank #392 of 1096
⚔️ HIFS vs TCBX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCBX vs. HIFS, GCBC, SMBC, HBCP)
Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) ranks #392 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #636 by equity capitalization ($673.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with TCBX at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCBX
ACTIVE
Third Coast Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 10.2x | — | 12.5% | +0.35% | $673.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | +1.22% | $657.3M | /hifs-vs-tcbx → |
| GCBC Greene County Bancorp Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | 19.6x | — | 12.1% | +1.16% | $610.7M | /gcbc-vs-tcbx → |
| SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 13.5x | — | 10.3% | -0.25% | $791.2M | /smbc-vs-tcbx → |
| HBCP Home Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 10.5x | — | 10.6% | -0.11% | $483.0M | /hbcp-vs-tcbx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001781730In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (TCBX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $66.3M, operating cash flow of $50.8M, and free cash flow of $50.8M (+52.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCBX closed FY2025 with $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $66.3M | $50.8M | $50.8M | $5.34B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $47.7M | $35.1M | $33.4M | $4.94B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $33.4M | $39.1M | $39.1M | — | — |
3. TCBX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TCBX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Third Coast Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: TCBX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $40.41 (+0.35% 1D, market cap $673.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TCBX ranks #392 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TCBX compare to HIFS and GCBC in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Banks), TCBX carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $657.3M) and GCBC (Greene County Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 19.6x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $610.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBX?
Per TCBX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001781730), Third Coast Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $66.3M in net income, and $50.8M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TCBX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TCBX last traded at $40.41 (+0.35% on volume of 134,573 shares), positioning the stock -6.11% below its 50-day simple moving average ($43.04) and -1.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.87). Across its 52-week range of $35.73 to $46.36, TCBX sits at the 44.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($38.03 to $42.79).
TCBX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TCBX stock moving today?
Why TCBX Stock advanced +0.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 10x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.