Stock Ratings / Financials / TCBS / forecast

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Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.28 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.25

Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $49.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TCBS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCBS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: TCBS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $17.28 (0.00% 1D, market cap $49.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TCBS ranks #527 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCBS compare to MBBC and FNWB in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Banks), TCBS carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, MBBC (Marathon Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $43.7M) and FNWB (First Northwest Bancorp) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.7%, cap $98.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBS leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while TCBS leads on capital efficiency (5.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBS?

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Per TCBS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001849466), Texas Community Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $2.8M in net income, and $973.0K in free cash flow against $429.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.25 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCBS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TCBS SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$17.00+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$17.00+1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$17.23+0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$17.28-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCBS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, TCBS faces multiple-compression risk if 17.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.20) or 200D SMA ($17.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.20) toward Bear Floor ($13.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCBS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TCBS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TCBS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.28: 578.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.42

$7,766

$-2,234 (-22.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.20

$9,954

$-46 (-0.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $21.00

$12,153

+$2,153 (+21.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$18	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$20	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$15	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TCBS)

✓Walkthrough of TCBS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TCBS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.95%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $17.28H $17.28L $17.28C $17.28

RES: $17.84SUP: $16.86SMA50: $17.20SMA200: $17.15

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCBS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TCBS Butterfly Map → + Track TCBS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCBS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCBS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCBS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCBS)

Financials Rank #527 of 1096 ⚔️ MBBC vs TCBS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCBS vs. MBBC, FNWB, BSBK, WSBK)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) ranks #527 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #1012 by equity capitalization ($49.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBS leads on earnings valuation at 17.5x trailing P/E, while TCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.3% ROIC and — gross margin. BSBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TCBS at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TCBS ACTIVE Texas Community Bancshares Inc.	D+	57/100	17.5x	—	5.3%	0.00%	$49.6M	Benchmark Subject
MBBC Marathon Bancorp Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	0.1%	0.00%	$43.7M	/mbbc-vs-tcbs →
FNWB First Northwest Bancorp	D-	35/100	—	—	-2.7%	-0.78%	$98.1M	/fnwb-vs-tcbs →
BSBK Bogota Financial Corp.	C-	59/100	56.3x	—	1.5%	-1.08%	$117.8M	/bsbk-vs-tcbs →
WSBK Winchester Bancorp Inc.	D+	53/100	—	—	-0.7%	+0.08%	$123.9M	/wsbk-vs-tcbs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001849466

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $2.8M, operating cash flow of $1.4M, and free cash flow of $973.0K (+31.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCBS closed FY2025 with $429.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$2.8M	$1.4M	$973.0K	$429.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$1.3M	$1.9M	$740.0K	$443.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$733.0K	$2.3M	$2.3M	—	—

3. TCBS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCBS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TCBS compare to MBBC and FNWB in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBS?

Where is TCBS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCBS last traded at $17.28 (0.00% on volume of 177 shares), positioning the stock +0.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.20) and +0.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.15). Across its 52-week range of $15.72 to $20.00, TCBS sits at the 36.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($16.97 to $17.59).

TCBS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TCBS's 12-month stock price target?

Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $17.2 (-0.5% from $17.28), with a bull-case target of $21 and a bear-case floor of $13.42.

Is TCBS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TCBS D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 57/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TCBS RQD Cockpit TCBS 12M Forecast TCBS Earnings & Move TCBS Dividends & DRIP TCBS Insiders & 13F TCBS Whale Options TCBS Profit Sankey TCBS News & Why