RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Fall Sharply in Friday TradingAsian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were sharply lower Friday morning, d
Why TC Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.11 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.11
Token Cat Limited (TC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $29.3M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.11 (-0.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TC SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (36% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 22.4 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (25% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$1.55-5.2% Next Q
44
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$1.47-17% Next Q
41
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$1.22-9% Next Q
39
CurrentGrade D-$1.11-8.3% Hist 90D α
36
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TC Turnaround Squeeze
While TC currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.70) and Max Pain ($1.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.99.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TC Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Token Cat Limited (TC) slipped 0.00% to $1.11, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1 – $19.99). Stretched risk/reward at 91x P/E (-21% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1 – $19.99) with RSI-14 at 22.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.11 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 2.4% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
11 Communication Services Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Pre-Market SessionGainers Dreamland (NASDAQ:TDIC) stock increased by 18.0% to $1.77 during Tuesday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $5.1 million. TEN Hldgs (NASDAQ:XHLD) shares increased by
MARKET WIREYahoo • 12d ago
Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Rise in Tuesday TradingAsian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were tracking higher Tuesday morning
MARKET WIREYahoo • 13d ago
Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Edge Higher in Monday TradingAsian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts started the week slightly higher Mon
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TC)
- ✓Walkthrough of TC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -88.38%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $1.08H $1.11L $1.00C $1.11VOL 52.0K
RES: $4.55SUP: $0.98SMA50: $1.70SMA200: $6.60
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TC)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #895 of 1011
⚔️ FTFT vs TC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TC vs. FTFT, MNY, TDTH, HGBL)
Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Token Cat Limited (TC) ranks #895 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #867 by equity capitalization ($29.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGBL leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while HGBL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.7% ROIC and 27.4% gross margin. MNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with TC at 36/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TC
ACTIVE
Token Cat Limited | D- | 36/100 | 90.8x | — | -20.6% | 0.00% | $29.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| FTFT Future FinTech Group Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | 10.7% | -35.0% | +9.34% | $27.4M | /ftft-vs-tc → |
| MNY MoneyHero Limited (Class A) | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | -2.36% | $24.5M | /mny-vs-tc → |
| TDTH Trident Digital Tech Holdings Ltd (Class B) | D | 46/100 | — | 51.2% | — | +6.64% | $40.9M | /tdth-vs-tc → |
| HGBL Heritage Global Inc. | D- | 38/100 | 12.2x | 27.4% | 9.7% | -2.33% | $43.6M | /hgbl-vs-tc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001743340In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Token Cat Limited (TC) reported GAAP revenue of $847.0K (-87.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.7M , and -96.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $323.0K, operating cash flow of -$25.2M, and free cash flow of -$25.2M (-430.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TC closed FY2025 with $24.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $847.0K | $323.0K | -$25.2M | -$25.2M | $24.7M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $6.7M | -$25.8M | -$4.8M | -$4.8M | $6.0M | $1.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $22.9M | -$11.7M | -$10.6M | -$10.6M | — | — |
3. TC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Token Cat Limited (NASDAQ: TC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.11 (0.00% 1D, market cap $29.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TC ranks #895 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TC compare to FTFT and MNY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), TC carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 90.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.6%. By comparison, FTFT (Future FinTech Group Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $27.4M) and MNY (MoneyHero Limited (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $24.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGBL leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while HGBL leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TC?
Per TC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001743340), Token Cat Limited generated $847.0K in revenue (-87.4% YoY), $323.0K in net income, and -$25.2M in free cash flow against $24.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TC last traded at $1.11 (0.00% on volume of 70,337 shares), positioning the stock -34.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.70) and -83.18% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.60). Across its 52-week range of $1.00 to $19.99, TC sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 22.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.25).
TC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TC stock moving today?
Why TC Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 91x P/E (-21% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.