MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TARS Stock surged +2.98% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$74.20 +2.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $74.46
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $3.66B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $74.46 (+0.35%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TARS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TARS SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (30% of score)
Altman Z-Score 10.19 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$73.16-7% Next Q
38
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$68.07+0.2% Next Q
41
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$68.20+8.8% Next Q
43
CurrentGrade D$74.20-6.1% Hist 90D α
46
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TARS Turnaround Squeeze
While TARS currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($75.16) and Max Pain ($77.91) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $96.11.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TARS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TARS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TARS Stock surged +2.98% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) surged +2.98% to $74.20, trading at 54% of its 52-week range ($53.89 – $91.53). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-24% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 54% of its 52-week range ($53.89 – $91.53) with RSI-14 at 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.5% around $74.20 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TARS Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TARS)
- ✓Walkthrough of TARS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TARS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.65%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $74.99H $76.27L $74.20C $74.20VOL 595.2K
RES: $103.0SUP: $68.62SMA50: $75.16SMA200: $67.78
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TARS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +146.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TARS today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TARS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TARS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TARS)
Health Care Rank #436 of 1016
⚔️ RLAY vs TARS Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TARS vs. RLAY, IOVA, DNLI, BEAM)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) ranks #436 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #189 by equity capitalization ($3.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TARS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TARS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -24.1% ROIC and — gross margin. IOVA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with TARS at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARS
ACTIVE
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | -24.1% | +2.98% | $3.66B | Benchmark Subject |
| RLAY Relay Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.12% | $4.27B | /rlay-vs-tars → |
| IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | 34.3% | -35.0% | -35.45% | $4.33B | /iova-vs-tars → |
| DNLI Denali Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +0.16% | $3.09B | /dnli-vs-tars → |
| BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -32.1% | +0.21% | $2.98B | /beam-vs-tars → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819790In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) reported GAAP revenue of $451.4M (+146.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $183.0M , and +2487.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$66.0M, operating cash flow of -$12.5M, and free cash flow of -$22.3M (+73.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TARS closed FY2025 with $562.2M in total assets against $72.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.19, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $451.4M | -$66.0M | -$12.5M | -$22.3M | $562.2M | $72.4M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $183.0M | -$116.0M | -$83.0M | -$84.6M | $377.0M | $71.8M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $17.4M | -$136.0M | -$117.5M | -$117.5M | — | — |
3. TARS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $74.20 (+2.98% 1D, market cap $3.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TARS ranks #436 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TARS compare to RLAY and IOVA in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TARS carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.1%. By comparison, RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.27B) and IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TARS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TARS leads on capital efficiency (-24.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TARS?
Per TARS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819790), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $451.4M in revenue (+146.7% YoY), -$66.0M in net income, and -$22.3M in free cash flow against $562.2M in total assets and $72.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TARS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TARS last traded at $74.20 (+2.98% on volume of 458,426 shares), positioning the stock -1.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($75.16) and +9.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.78). Across its 52-week range of $53.89 to $91.53, TARS sits at the 54.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($67.15 to $81.25).
TARS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TARS stock moving today?
Why TARS Stock surged +2.98% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-24% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.