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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$74.20 +2.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.66B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TARS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TARS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $74.20: 134.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $54.75

$7,379

$-2,621 (-26.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $70.19

$9,460

$-540 (-5.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $96.11

$12,953

+$2,953 (+29.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$73	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$90	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$62	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TARS)

✓Walkthrough of TARS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TARS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.65%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $74.99H $76.27L $74.20C $74.20VOL 595.2K

RES: $103.0SUP: $68.62SMA50: $75.16SMA200: $67.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TARS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TARS Butterfly Map → + Track TARS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +146.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TARS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TARS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TARS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TARS)

Health Care Rank #436 of 1016 ⚔️ RLAY vs TARS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TARS vs. RLAY, IOVA, DNLI, BEAM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) ranks #436 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #189 by equity capitalization ($3.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TARS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TARS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -24.1% ROIC and — gross margin. IOVA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with TARS at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TARS ACTIVE Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-24.1%	+2.98%	$3.66B	Benchmark Subject
RLAY Relay Therapeutics Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.12%	$4.27B	/rlay-vs-tars →
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.	D	48/100	—	34.3%	-35.0%	-35.45%	$4.33B	/iova-vs-tars →
DNLI Denali Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.16%	$3.09B	/dnli-vs-tars →
BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-32.1%	+0.21%	$2.98B	/beam-vs-tars →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819790

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) reported GAAP revenue of $451.4M (+146.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $183.0M , and +2487.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$66.0M, operating cash flow of -$12.5M, and free cash flow of -$22.3M (+73.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TARS closed FY2025 with $562.2M in total assets against $72.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.19, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$451.4M	-$66.0M	-$12.5M	-$22.3M	$562.2M	$72.4M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$183.0M	-$116.0M	-$83.0M	-$84.6M	$377.0M	$71.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$17.4M	-$136.0M	-$117.5M	-$117.5M	—	—

3. TARS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $74.20 (+2.98% 1D, market cap $3.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TARS ranks #436 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TARS compare to RLAY and IOVA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TARS carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.1%. By comparison, RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.27B) and IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TARS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TARS leads on capital efficiency (-24.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TARS?

Per TARS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819790), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $451.4M in revenue (+146.7% YoY), -$66.0M in net income, and -$22.3M in free cash flow against $562.2M in total assets and $72.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TARS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TARS last traded at $74.20 (+2.98% on volume of 458,426 shares), positioning the stock -1.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($75.16) and +9.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.78). Across its 52-week range of $53.89 to $91.53, TARS sits at the 54.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($67.15 to $81.25).

TARS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TARS's 12-month stock price target?

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $70.19 (-5.4% from $74.20), with a bull-case target of $96.11 and a bear-case floor of $54.75.

Is TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TARS D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TARS RQD Cockpit TARS 12M Forecast TARS Earnings & Move TARS Dividends & DRIP TARS Insiders & 13F TARS Whale Options TARS Profit Sankey TARS News & Why