CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Dividend Announcements: October 17-23, 2026 (Part 2 Of 2)I track dividend announcements across 1,200+ stocks. This week, 42 companies increased their dividend, including two stocks I own.
Why SPH Stock advanced +1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$17.85 +1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.85
Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.19B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is SPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (NYSE: SPH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $17.85 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $1.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPH ranks #302 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does SPH compare to REAL and WINA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPH carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of 60.6%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, REAL (The RealReal Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.4%, cap $1.38B) and WINA (Winmark Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 84.5%, cap $1.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPH leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while WINA leads on capital efficiency (84.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPH?
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Per SPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001005210), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. generated $1.43B in revenue (+7.9% YoY), $106.6M in net income, and $114.3M in free cash flow against $2.40B in total assets and $1.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.85 (+0.00%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPH SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$17.09+2.3% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$17.48+1.4% Next Q
59
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$17.73+0.7% Next Q
61
CurrentGrade C$17.85+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPH Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, SPH faces multiple-compression risk if 11.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 58.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.23) or 200D SMA ($18.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.33) toward Bear Floor ($14.30).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SPH Stock advanced +1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) advanced +1.08% to $17.85, trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($16.25 – $20.8). Solid 61% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($16.25 – $20.8) with RSI-14 at 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.6% around $17.85 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 60.6% gross margin and $114.3M annual free cash flow.
Live SPH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 7d ago
Buy 8 Barron's Big Better Bets (Than T-Bills) Out Of 14 'Safer' October DiviDogsMARKET WIREFintel • 10d ago
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. Declares Increase in Annualized Distribution Rate to $1.40 per Common UnitCATALYSTBenzinga • 10d ago
Suburban Propane Partners Increases Distribution From $0.325 To $0.35 Per Common UnitThe distribution is payable on November 10, 2026 to Common Unitholders of record as of November 3, 2026.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 11d ago
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. to Hold Fiscal 2026 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Results Conference CallSuburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE: SPH), announced today that it has scheduled its Fiscal 2026 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 9:00 AM Eastern Time.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SPH Tape Review)
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SPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $18.11H $18.19L $17.85C $17.85VOL 201.0K
RES: $18.27SUP: $15.79SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.73
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
1.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPH)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #302 of 1011
⚔️ REAL vs SPH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPH vs. REAL, WINA, SVV, RERE)
Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) ranks #302 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #491 by equity capitalization ($1.19B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while WINA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 84.5% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. WINA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SPH at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPH
ACTIVE
Suburban Propane Partners L.P. | C | 64/100 | 11.2x | 60.6% | 8.4% | +1.08% | $1.19B | Benchmark Subject |
| REAL The RealReal Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 74.6% | -27.4% | +2.62% | $1.38B | /real-vs-sph → |
| WINA Winmark Corporation | C+ | 69/100 | 24.5x | 96.0% | 84.5% | +1.38% | $1.02B | /wina-vs-sph → |
| SVV Savers Value Village Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | 64.5x | — | 9.3% | +5.70% | $1.46B | /svv-vs-sph → |
| RERE ATRenew Inc. (every three of which representing two ) (Class A) | D | 47/100 | 18.8x | — | 14.7% | +4.04% | $903.4M | /rere-vs-sph → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0001005210In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+7.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $106.6M, operating cash flow of $186.3M, and free cash flow of $114.3M (+13.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPH closed FY2025 with $2.40B in total assets against $1.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-27 | $1.43B | $106.6M | $186.3M | $114.3M | $2.40B | $1.32B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-28 | $1.33B | $74.2M | $160.6M | $101.2M | $2.38B | $1.30B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.43B | $123.8M | $225.2M | $225.2M | — | — |
3. SPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (NYSE: SPH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $17.85 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $1.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPH ranks #302 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SPH compare to REAL and WINA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPH carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of 60.6%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, REAL (The RealReal Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.4%, cap $1.38B) and WINA (Winmark Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 84.5%, cap $1.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPH leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while WINA leads on capital efficiency (84.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPH?
Per SPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001005210), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. generated $1.43B in revenue (+7.9% YoY), $106.6M in net income, and $114.3M in free cash flow against $2.40B in total assets and $1.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SPH last traded at $17.85 (+1.08% on volume of 122,054 shares), positioning the stock +3.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.23) and -4.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.73). Across its 52-week range of $16.25 to $20.80, SPH sits at the 35.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($17.21 to $18.49).
SPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SPH stock moving today?
Why SPH Stock advanced +1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 61% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.