Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SPH / financials

REAL (46) WINA (69) SVV (55) RERE (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$17.85 +1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.85

Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.19B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.85 (+0.00%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SPH SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$17.09+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$17.48+1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$17.73+0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$17.85+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, SPH faces multiple-compression risk if 11.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 58.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.23) or 200D SMA ($18.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.33) toward Bear Floor ($14.30).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SPH Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$114.3M (8% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.43B

FY24

Rev $1.33B

FY25

Rev $1.43B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.43B	60.6%	14.4%	$106.6M	$114.3M	8.4%
FY 2024	$1.33B	60.7%	12.9%	$74.2M	$101.2M	7.3%
FY 2023	$1.43B	60.6%	14.5%	$123.8M	$225.2M	8.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPH)

✓Walkthrough of SPH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $18.11H $18.19L $17.85C $17.85VOL 201.0K

RES: $18.27SUP: $15.79SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.73

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPH Butterfly Map → + Track SPH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

1.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #302 of 1011 ⚔️ REAL vs SPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPH vs. REAL, WINA, SVV, RERE)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) ranks #302 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #491 by equity capitalization ($1.19B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while WINA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 84.5% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. WINA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SPH at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SPH ACTIVE Suburban Propane Partners L.P.	C	64/100	11.2x	60.6%	8.4%	+1.08%	$1.19B	Benchmark Subject
REAL The RealReal Inc.	D	46/100	—	74.6%	-27.4%	+2.62%	$1.38B	/real-vs-sph →
WINA Winmark Corporation	C+	69/100	24.5x	96.0%	84.5%	+1.38%	$1.02B	/wina-vs-sph →
SVV Savers Value Village Inc.	D+	55/100	64.5x	—	9.3%	+5.70%	$1.46B	/svv-vs-sph →
RERE ATRenew Inc. (every three of which representing two ) (Class A)	D	47/100	18.8x	—	14.7%	+4.04%	$903.4M	/rere-vs-sph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0001005210

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+7.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $106.6M, operating cash flow of $186.3M, and free cash flow of $114.3M (+13.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPH closed FY2025 with $2.40B in total assets against $1.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-27	$1.43B	$106.6M	$186.3M	$114.3M	$2.40B	$1.32B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-28	$1.33B	$74.2M	$160.6M	$101.2M	$2.38B	$1.30B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.43B	$123.8M	$225.2M	$225.2M	—	—

3. SPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (NYSE: SPH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $17.85 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $1.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPH ranks #302 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPH compare to REAL and WINA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPH carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of 60.6%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, REAL (The RealReal Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.4%, cap $1.38B) and WINA (Winmark Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 84.5%, cap $1.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPH leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while WINA leads on capital efficiency (84.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPH?

Per SPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001005210), Suburban Propane Partners L.P. generated $1.43B in revenue (+7.9% YoY), $106.6M in net income, and $114.3M in free cash flow against $2.40B in total assets and $1.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPH last traded at $17.85 (+1.08% on volume of 122,054 shares), positioning the stock +3.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.23) and -4.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.73). Across its 52-week range of $16.25 to $20.80, SPH sits at the 35.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($17.21 to $18.49).

SPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Suburban Propane Partners L.P. (SPH)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SPH converted $1.4B of revenue into a 60.6% gross margin, 14.4% operating margin, and $114.3M in free cash flow (8% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SPH RQD Cockpit SPH 12M Forecast SPH Earnings & Move SPH Dividends & DRIP SPH Insiders & 13F SPH Whale Options SPH Profit Sankey SPH News & Why