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Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.73 +2.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $413.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPCE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SPCE Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.73: 3663.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.88

$6,886

$-3,114 (-31.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.41

$8,828

$-1,172 (-11.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.35

$34,249

+$24,249 (+242.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$2	58%	C

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPCE)

✓Walkthrough of SPCE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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SPCE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.71%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $2.64H $2.73L $2.50C $2.73VOL 5.13M

RES: $3.28SUP: $2.16SMA50: $2.88SMA200: $2.92

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPCE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPCE Butterfly Map → + Track SPCE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPCE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPCE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPCE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPCE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #940 of 1011 ⚔️ VRRM vs SPCE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPCE vs. VRRM, GMRS, VTOL, FLYX)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) ranks #940 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #607 by equity capitalization ($413.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRRM leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while VRRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VTOL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with SPCE at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SPCE ACTIVE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.	E	32/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	+2.63%	$413.9M	Benchmark Subject
VRRM Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)	C-	61/100	3.7x	—	15.1%	+6.37%	$507.6M	/vrrm-vs-spce →
GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+4.58%	$616.9M	/gmrs-vs-spce →
VTOL Bristow Group Inc.	B	72/100	9.7x	—	8.9%	+1.47%	$1.25B	/vtol-vs-spce →
FLYX flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	15.0%	-35.0%	0.00%	$130.0M	/flyx-vs-spce →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001706946

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.5M (-78.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.0M , and -77.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$278.9K, operating cash flow of -$240.1M, and free cash flow of -$438.2M (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPCE closed FY2025 with $803.2M in total assets against $276.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.5M	-$278.9K	-$240.1M	-$438.2M	$803.2M	$276.4M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.0M	-$346.7K	-$352.7M	-$474.6M	$961.2M	$420.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$6.8M	-$502.3K	-$448.2M	-$448.2M	—	—

3. SPCE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPCE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $2.73 (+2.63% 1D, market cap $413.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPCE ranks #940 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPCE compare to VRRM and GMRS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SPCE carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRRM (Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $507.6M) and GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $616.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPCE?

Per SPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706946), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. generated $1.5M in revenue (-78.1% YoY), -$278.9K in net income, and -$438.2M in free cash flow against $803.2M in total assets and $276.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPCE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPCE last traded at $2.73 (+2.63% on volume of 4,725,632 shares), positioning the stock -5.21% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.88) and -6.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.92). Across its 52-week range of $2.13 to $8.90, SPCE sits at the 8.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($2.41 to $3.05).

SPCE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SPCE's 12-month stock price target?

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.41 (-11.7% from $2.73), with a bull-case target of $9.35 and a bear-case floor of $1.88.

Is SPCE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates SPCE E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 32/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: SPCE RQD Cockpit SPCE 12M Forecast SPCE Earnings & Move SPCE Dividends & DRIP SPCE Insiders & 13F SPCE Whale Options SPCE Profit Sankey SPCE News & Why