Stock Ratings / Energy / SOBO / earnings

UGI (64) KNTK (62) PAGP (64) AROC (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

South Bow Corporation (SOBO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.1% Move

$35.94 +1.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.95

South Bow Corporation (SOBO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $7.50B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.95 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 36.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SOBO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SOBO SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.1% FCF Margin ($717.0M FCF) & 84.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$33.22+4.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$34.69+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$35.43+1.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$35.94+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SOBO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, SOBO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 81.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.37) or 200D SMA ($34.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.59) toward Bear Floor ($28.54).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SOBO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SOBO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.1% Swing Band

±$1.47 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SOBO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -6.3%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.99B	$0	$717.0M	84.2%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$2.12B	$0	$529.0M	82.3%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$2.00B	$0	$779.0M	84.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SOBO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SOBO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SOBO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.96%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $36.06H $36.17L $35.76C $35.94VOL 343.8K

RES: $39.14SUP: $31.51SMA50: $35.37SMA200: $34.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SOBO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SOBO Butterfly Map → + Track SOBO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SOBO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SOBO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SOBO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SOBO)

Energy Rank #83 of 211 ⚔️ UGI vs SOBO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SOBO vs. UGI, KNTK, PAGP, AROC)

Industry: Natural Gas Distribution (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, South Bow Corporation (SOBO) ranks #83 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #68 by equity capitalization ($7.50B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UGI leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while KNTK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.0% ROIC and — gross margin. UGI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with SOBO at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SOBO ACTIVE South Bow Corporation	C	62/100	—	84.2%	—	+1.21%	$7.50B	Benchmark Subject
UGI UGI Corporation	C	64/100	12.2x	—	9.4%	+0.31%	$8.27B	/ugi-vs-sobo →
KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc.	C	62/100	17.9x	—	11.0%	+2.61%	$9.43B	/kntk-vs-sobo →
PAGP Plains GP Holdings L.P. (Class A)	C	64/100	—	8.7%	5.1%	+0.84%	$5.70B	/pagp-vs-sobo →
AROC Archrock Inc.	C	62/100	17.5x	48.6%	8.0%	+0.75%	$5.63B	/aroc-vs-sobo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002019061

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), South Bow Corporation (SOBO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.99B (-6.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.12B , and -0.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $717.0M, and free cash flow of $717.0M (+35.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SOBO closed FY2025 with $11.19B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.99B	$0	$717.0M	$717.0M	$11.19B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.12B	$0	$529.0M	$529.0M	$11.33B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.00B	$0	$779.0M	$779.0M	—	—

3. SOBO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SOBO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, South Bow Corporation (NYSE: SOBO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $35.94 (+1.21% 1D, market cap $7.50B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOBO ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SOBO compare to UGI and KNTK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Natural Gas Distribution), SOBO carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 84.2%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UGI (UGI Corporation) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 9.4%, cap $8.27B) and KNTK (Kinetik Holdings Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $9.43B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UGI leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while KNTK leads on capital efficiency (11.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOBO?

Per SOBO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002019061), South Bow Corporation generated $1.99B in revenue (-6.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and $717.0M in free cash flow against $11.19B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (84% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SOBO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SOBO last traded at $35.94 (+1.21% on volume of 498,005 shares), positioning the stock +1.61% above its 50-day simple moving average ($35.37) and +4.36% above its 200-day simple moving average ($34.44). Across its 52-week range of $25.02 to $39.02, SOBO sits at the 78.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($34.47 to $37.41).

SOBO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SOBO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, South Bow Corporation (SOBO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SOBO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.1% event move for SOBO, spanning a range between $34.47 and $37.41.

Direct Sub-Reports: SOBO RQD Cockpit SOBO 12M Forecast SOBO Earnings & Move SOBO Dividends & DRIP SOBO Insiders & 13F SOBO Whale Options SOBO Profit Sankey SOBO News & Why