Why SMG Stock surged +3.70% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$61.87 +3.70% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) (SMG) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID warning (65/100 RQD Confidence). Our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing real operating cash flow (+264.4% (NI vs OCF)) while unpaid customer invoices grew—a classic sign to step aside until cash flow catches up.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.60B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (8)Macro (15)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$79 Bull$64 Base$50 Bear
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WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:56% Call Buyers ($2.5M)
44% PutsMax Pain: $61.00
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Why SMG Stock surged +3.70% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) (SMG) surged +3.70% to $61.87 as options desks priced 56% call premium vs. 44% put protection around the $61 max-pain magnet. Accounting Warning: Paper earnings outpaced operating cash flow (+264.4% (NI vs OCF)) as receivables rose.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 51% of its 52-week range ($47.9 – $75.34) with RSI-14 at 75.5 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
  • ▸Whale Options Positioning: $2.5M in bullish call flow vs. $2.0M in put flow (Put/Call 0.77x, implied earnings swing ±7%).
  • ▸Primary SEC / Cross-Feed Trigger: SMG Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (-44.4%) With +1.5% Working-Capital Build
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SMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.73%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $62.43H $62.90L $61.67C $62.24VOL 1.46M
RES: $55.62SUP: $41.37SMA50: $55.30SMA200: $61.87
$77.26$69.30$61.35$53.39$45.43RES $55.62SUP $41.37$62.242026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

SMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is SMG stock moving today?

Why SMG Stock surged +3.70% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Accounting Warning: Paper earnings outpaced operating cash flow (+264.4% (NI vs OCF)) as receivables rose.