CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week November 1Get a weekly dividend summary for Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.
Why SGU Stock slipped -1.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.92 -1.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.87
Star Group L.P. (SGU) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $423.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.87 (-0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SGU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SGU SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$12.99+0.8% Next Q
67
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$13.09+0.5% Next Q
64
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$13.15-1.7% Next Q
62
CurrentGrade C-$12.92+0.2% Hist 90D α
59
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SGU Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, SGU faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 29.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.86) or 200D SMA ($12.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.98) toward Bear Floor ($10.12).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SGU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SGU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SGU Stock slipped -1.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Star Group L.P. (SGU) slipped -1.15% to $12.92, trading at 71% of its 52-week range ($11.41 – $13.53). Solid 32% profit margin (32% profit margin), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 71% of its 52-week range ($11.41 – $13.53) with RSI-14 at 49.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.3% around $12.92 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 31.5% gross margin and $56.0M annual free cash flow.
Live SGU Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SGU Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SGU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $12.93H $13.02L $12.92C $12.92VOL 10.5K
RES: $13.30SUP: $12.38SMA50: $12.86SMA200: $12.77
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SGU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SGU today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SGU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SGU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SGU)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #422 of 1011
⚔️ BNED vs SGU Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SGU vs. BNED, HVT, TITN, WOOF)
Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Star Group L.P. (SGU) ranks #422 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #605 by equity capitalization ($423.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SGU leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while BNED leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. HVT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SGU at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGU
ACTIVE
Star Group L.P. | C- | 59/100 | 5.8x | 31.5% | — | -1.15% | $423.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| BNED Barnes & Noble Education Inc | D+ | 55/100 | 26.1x | 23.4% | 10.3% | -1.47% | $440.9M | /bned-vs-sgu → |
| HVT Haverty Furniture Companies Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 23.2x | 60.7% | 6.4% | +3.81% | $458.6M | /hvt-vs-sgu → |
| TITN Titan Machinery Inc. | D+ | 54/100 | — | 15.8% | -0.7% | +3.59% | $577.5M | /titn-vs-sgu → |
| WOOF Petco Health and Wellness Company Inc. (Class A) | D | 49/100 | 81.5x | 38.7% | 4.0% | +3.19% | $741.8M | /woof-vs-sgu → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001002590In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Star Group L.P. (SGU) reported GAAP revenue of $1.78B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and -8.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.5M, operating cash flow of $71.0M, and free cash flow of $56.0M (-44.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SGU closed FY2025 with $1.05B in total assets against $161.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $1.78B | $73.5M | $71.0M | $56.0M | $1.05B | $161.9M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $1.77B | $35.2M | $111.0M | $100.3M | $986.8M | $182.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.95B | $31.9M | $123.7M | $123.7M | — | — |
3. SGU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SGU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Star Group L.P. (NYSE: SGU) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $12.92 (-1.15% 1D, market cap $423.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SGU ranks #422 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SGU compare to BNED and HVT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SGU carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BNED (Barnes & Noble Education Inc) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $440.9M) and HVT (Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 23.2x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $458.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SGU leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while BNED leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGU?
Per SGU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001002590), Star Group L.P. generated $1.78B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $73.5M in net income, and $56.0M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $161.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SGU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SGU last traded at $12.92 (-1.15% on volume of 14,301 shares), positioning the stock +0.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.86) and +1.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.77). Across its 52-week range of $11.41 to $13.53, SGU sits at the 71.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.3% ($12.49 to $13.35).
SGU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SGU stock moving today?
Why SGU Stock slipped -1.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 32% profit margin (32% profit margin), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.