Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SGU / financials

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Star Group L.P. (SGU) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$12.92 -1.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.87

Star Group L.P. (SGU) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $423.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.87 (-0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SGU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SGU SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$12.99+0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$13.09+0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$13.15-1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$12.92+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SGU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, SGU faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 29.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.86) or 200D SMA ($12.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.98) toward Bear Floor ($10.12).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SGU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SGU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SGU Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$56.0M (3.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.95B

FY24

Rev $1.77B

FY25

Rev $1.78B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.78B	31.5%	6.4%	$73.5M	$56.0M	15%
FY 2024	$1.77B	28.4%	3.5%	$35.2M	$100.3M	15%
FY 2023	$1.95B	31.5%	3.2%	$31.9M	$123.7M	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SGU)

✓Walkthrough of SGU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SGU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.93H $13.02L $12.92C $12.92VOL 10.5K

RES: $13.30SUP: $12.38SMA50: $12.86SMA200: $12.77

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SGU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SGU Butterfly Map → + Track SGU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SGU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SGU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SGU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SGU)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #422 of 1011 ⚔️ BNED vs SGU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SGU vs. BNED, HVT, TITN, WOOF)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Star Group L.P. (SGU) ranks #422 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #605 by equity capitalization ($423.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SGU leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while BNED leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. HVT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SGU at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SGU ACTIVE Star Group L.P.	C-	59/100	5.8x	31.5%	—	-1.15%	$423.9M	Benchmark Subject
BNED Barnes & Noble Education Inc	D+	55/100	26.1x	23.4%	10.3%	-1.47%	$440.9M	/bned-vs-sgu →
HVT Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.	C+	69/100	23.2x	60.7%	6.4%	+3.81%	$458.6M	/hvt-vs-sgu →
TITN Titan Machinery Inc.	D+	54/100	—	15.8%	-0.7%	+3.59%	$577.5M	/titn-vs-sgu →
WOOF Petco Health and Wellness Company Inc. (Class A)	D	49/100	81.5x	38.7%	4.0%	+3.19%	$741.8M	/woof-vs-sgu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001002590

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Star Group L.P. (SGU) reported GAAP revenue of $1.78B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and -8.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.5M, operating cash flow of $71.0M, and free cash flow of $56.0M (-44.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SGU closed FY2025 with $1.05B in total assets against $161.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.78B	$73.5M	$71.0M	$56.0M	$1.05B	$161.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.77B	$35.2M	$111.0M	$100.3M	$986.8M	$182.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.95B	$31.9M	$123.7M	$123.7M	—	—

3. SGU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SGU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Star Group L.P. (NYSE: SGU) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $12.92 (-1.15% 1D, market cap $423.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SGU ranks #422 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SGU compare to BNED and HVT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SGU carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BNED (Barnes & Noble Education Inc) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $440.9M) and HVT (Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 23.2x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $458.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SGU leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while BNED leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGU?

Per SGU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001002590), Star Group L.P. generated $1.78B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $73.5M in net income, and $56.0M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $161.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SGU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SGU last traded at $12.92 (-1.15% on volume of 14,301 shares), positioning the stock +0.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.86) and +1.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.77). Across its 52-week range of $11.41 to $13.53, SGU sits at the 71.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.3% ($12.49 to $13.35).

SGU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Star Group L.P. (SGU)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SGU converted $1.8B of revenue into a 31.5% gross margin, 6.4% operating margin, and $56.0M in free cash flow (3.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SGU RQD Cockpit SGU 12M Forecast SGU Earnings & Move SGU Dividends & DRIP SGU Insiders & 13F SGU Whale Options SGU Profit Sankey SGU News & Why