MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SFNC Stock advanced +1.30% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$23.37 +1.30% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.38
Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) (SFNC) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $3.38B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.38 (+0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 10.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SFNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SFNC SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 87% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$22.18-0.5% Next Q
52
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$22.07+5.6% Next Q
55
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$23.31+0.3% Next Q
57
CurrentGrade C-$23.37+0.4% Hist 90D α
60
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SFNC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, SFNC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.80) or 200D SMA ($21.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.58) toward Bear Floor ($18.39).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SFNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SFNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SFNC Stock advanced +1.30% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) (SFNC) advanced +1.30% to $23.37, trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($17 – $24.32). Solid steady margins (-11% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($17 – $24.32) with RSI-14 at 55.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.4% around $23.37 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $411.4M annual free cash flow.
Live SFNC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SFNC Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SFNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.92%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $23.43H $23.45L $23.02C $23.37VOL 1.38M
RES: $24.08SUP: $21.62SMA50: $22.80SMA200: $21.73
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SFNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SFNC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SFNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SFNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SFNC)
Financials Rank #485 of 1096
⚔️ CBU vs SFNC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SFNC vs. CBU, FFBC, PRK, MCHB)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) (SFNC) ranks #485 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #337 by equity capitalization ($3.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MCHB leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while PRK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with SFNC at 60/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFNC
ACTIVE
Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) | C- | 60/100 | — | — | -11.1% | +1.30% | $3.38B | Benchmark Subject |
| CBU Community Financial System Inc. | C | 63/100 | 15.8x | — | 10.5% | +0.96% | $3.33B | /cbu-vs-sfnc → |
| FFBC First Financial Bancorp. | C | 64/100 | — | — | 0.0% | +0.34% | $3.45B | /ffbc-vs-sfnc → |
| PRK Park National Corporation | B | 73/100 | 18.2x | — | 13.3% | +1.53% | $3.27B | /prk-vs-sfnc → |
| MCHB Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | 12.2x | — | 9.3% | -1.81% | $3.23B | /mchb-vs-sfnc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000090498In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) (SFNC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$379.6M, operating cash flow of $449.5M, and free cash flow of $411.4M (+8.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SFNC closed FY2025 with $24.54B in total assets against $335.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$379.6M | $449.5M | $411.4M | $24.54B | $335.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $152.7M | $425.9M | $380.4M | $26.88B | $386.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $175.1M | $541.0M | $541.0M | — | — |
3. SFNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SFNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) (NASDAQ: SFNC) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $23.37 (+1.30% 1D, market cap $3.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SFNC ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SFNC compare to CBU and FFBC in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SFNC carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -11.1%. By comparison, CBU (Community Financial System Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $3.33B) and FFBC (First Financial Bancorp.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $3.45B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MCHB leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while PRK leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SFNC?
Per SFNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000090498), Simmons First National Corporation (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, -$379.6M in net income, and $411.4M in free cash flow against $24.54B in total assets and $335.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SFNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SFNC last traded at $23.37 (+1.30% on volume of 1,538,798 shares), positioning the stock +2.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.80) and +7.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($21.73). Across its 52-week range of $17.00 to $24.32, SFNC sits at the 87.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($22.34 to $24.40).
SFNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SFNC stock moving today?
Why SFNC Stock advanced +1.30% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (-11% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.