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Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. (SFBC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$45.00 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.91

Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. (SFBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $115.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.91 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SFBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SFBC SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 51% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$42.46+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$43.17+3.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$44.80+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$45.00+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SFBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, SFBC faces multiple-compression risk if 16.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.92) or 200D SMA ($44.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.82) toward Bear Floor ($36.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SFBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SFBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SFBC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $45.00: 222.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $36.52

$8,116

$-1,884 (-18.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $46.82

$10,404

+$404 (+4.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $55.25

$12,278

+$2,278 (+22.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$49	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$52	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$42	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SFBC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SFBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.36%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $45.55H $45.55L $45.00C $45.00VOL 600

RES: $48.73SUP: $42.69SMA50: $45.92SMA200: $44.25

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SFBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SFBC Butterfly Map → + Track SFBC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SFBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SFBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SFBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SFBC)

Financials Rank #264 of 1096 ⚔️ PROV vs SFBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SFBC vs. PROV, RVSB, BYFC, MGYR)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. (SFBC) ranks #264 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #947 by equity capitalization ($115.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SFBC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SFBC ACTIVE Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	16.1x	—	6.5%	0.00%	$115.6M	Benchmark Subject
PROV Provident Financial Holdings Inc.	C-	60/100	18.0x	—	4.9%	0.00%	$112.8M	/prov-vs-sfbc →
RVSB Riverview Bancorp Inc	D	49/100	—	—	-2.6%	-1.82%	$119.4M	/rvsb-vs-sfbc →
BYFC Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	-9.4%	+0.26%	$106.5M	/byfc-vs-sfbc →
MGYR Magyar Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	13.4x	—	8.0%	+0.45%	$130.7M	/mgyr-vs-sfbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001541119

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. (SFBC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $7.2M, operating cash flow of $7.2M, and free cash flow of $7.0M (+144.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SFBC closed FY2025 with $1.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$7.2M	$7.2M	$7.0M	$1.09B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$4.6M	$2.9M	$2.9M	$993.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$7.4M	$6.9M	$6.9M	—	—

3. SFBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SFBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: SFBC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $45.00 (0.00% 1D, market cap $115.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SFBC ranks #264 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SFBC compare to PROV and RVSB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), SFBC carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.5%. By comparison, PROV (Provident Financial Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 18.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $112.8M) and RVSB (Riverview Bancorp Inc) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $119.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SFBC?

Per SFBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001541119), Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $7.2M in net income, and $7.0M in free cash flow against $1.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SFBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SFBC last traded at $45.00 (0.00% on volume of 824 shares), positioning the stock -2.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($45.92) and +1.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($44.25). Across its 52-week range of $40.68 to $49.21, SFBC sits at the 50.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($42.98 to $47.02).

SFBC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SFBC's 12-month stock price target?

Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. (SFBC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $46.82 (+4% from $45.00), with a bull-case target of $55.25 and a bear-case floor of $36.52.