Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / SEED / dividends

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Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$0.77 +3.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.77

Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $10.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SEED Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SEED stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Origin Agritech Limited (NASDAQ: SEED) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $0.77 (+3.24% 1D, market cap $10.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SEED ranks #105 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SEED compare to TULP and AGRZ in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Farming/Seeds/Milling), SEED carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 7.0%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, TULP (Bloomia Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.9M) and AGRZ (Agroz Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGN leads on earnings multiple (22.8x) while MGN leads on capital efficiency (1.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEED?

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Per SEED's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001321851), Origin Agritech Limited generated $12.8M in revenue (-20.6% YoY), -$7.5M in net income, and -$4.8M in free cash flow against $14.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.77 (+0.39%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SEED)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SEED SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 7% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$0.71+35.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$0.96-17.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$0.79-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.77-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SEED Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SEED currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.89) and Max Pain ($0.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SEED• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SEED Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

3.24% Total Yield

1.44% Cash ($0.01/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

33.4% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,127

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $620/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.7K

Yr 1

$11.4K

Yr 2

$12.1K

Yr 3

$13.0K

Yr 4

$13.8K

Yr 5

$14.8K

Yr 6

$15.7K

Yr 7

$16.8K

Yr 8

$17.9K

Yr 9

$19.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SEED)

✓Walkthrough of SEED's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SEED // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.40%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $0.79H $0.79L $0.75C $0.77VOL 26.6K

RES: $1.05SUP: $0.56SMA50: $0.89SMA200: $1.07

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SEED Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SEED Butterfly Map → + Track SEED →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -20.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SEED today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SEED. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SEED today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SEED)

Consumer Staples Rank #105 of 146 ⚔️ TULP vs SEED Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (SEED vs. TULP, AGRZ, LOCL, MGN)

Industry: Farming/Seeds/Milling (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) ranks #105 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #125 by equity capitalization ($10.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGN leads on earnings valuation at 22.8x trailing P/E, while MGN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.0% ROIC and 1.7% gross margin. AGRZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with SEED at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SEED ACTIVE Origin Agritech Limited	D-	39/100	—	7.0%	—	+3.24%	$10.6M	Benchmark Subject
TULP Bloomia Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$10.9M	/tulp-vs-seed →
AGRZ Agroz Inc. (Class A)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-13.57%	$5.3M	/agrz-vs-seed →
LOCL Local Bounti Corporation	E	30/100	—	12.1%	-15.8%	+0.62%	$21.6M	/locl-vs-seed →
MGN Megan Holdings Limited (Class A)	E	30/100	22.8x	1.7%	1.0%	+3.00%	$4.9M	/mgn-vs-seed →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001321851

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) reported GAAP revenue of $12.8M (-20.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $16.2M , and -1.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$7.5M, operating cash flow of -$3.2M, and free cash flow of -$4.8M (-68.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SEED closed FY2025 with $14.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$12.8M	-$7.5M	-$3.2M	-$4.8M	$14.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$16.2M	$3.0M	-$2.1M	-$2.9M	—	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$13.0M	$7.7M	-$759.0K	-$759.0K	—	—

3. SEED Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SEED stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SEED compare to TULP and AGRZ in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEED?

Where is SEED trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SEED last traded at $0.77 (+3.24% on volume of 12,145 shares), positioning the stock -13.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.89) and -28.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.07). Across its 52-week range of $0.66 to $1.79, SEED sits at the 9.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.87).

SEED Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does SEED pay a dividend and is it safe?

Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) offers a 1.44% cash dividend yield ($0.01 annualized) and 3.24% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: SEED RQD Cockpit SEED 12M Forecast SEED Earnings & Move SEED Dividends & DRIP SEED Insiders & 13F SEED Whale Options SEED Profit Sankey SEED News & Why