Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SEAT / financials

AIFA (46) NOMA (30) AHMA (46) NIPG (48) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) (SEAT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: How profitable is Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) (SEAT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SEAT converted $450.5M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$2.35 +1.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.35

Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) (SEAT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $27.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.35 (+0.00%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SEAT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SEAT SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 25.8 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.21-10.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$2.87-5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.71-13.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$2.35-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SEAT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SEAT currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.11) and Max Pain ($2.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SEAT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SEAT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SEAT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $597.4M

FY24

Rev $647.9M

FY25

Rev $450.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$450.5M	52%	0%	$806.1M	-$93.8M	15%
FY 2024	$647.9M	52%	0%	$13.4M	$49.7M	15%
FY 2023	$597.4M	52%	0%	$69.4M	$147.3M	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SEAT)

✓Walkthrough of SEAT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SEAT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -64.93%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $2.32H $2.40L $2.27C $2.35VOL 57.8K

RES: $8.84SUP: $1.84SMA50: $4.11SMA200: $6.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SEAT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SEAT Butterfly Map → + Track SEAT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -30.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SEAT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SEAT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SEAT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SEAT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #755 of 1011 ⚔️ AIFA vs SEAT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SEAT vs. AIFA, NOMA, AHMA, NIPG)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) (SEAT) ranks #755 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #871 by equity capitalization ($27.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AHMA leads on earnings valuation at 26.2x trailing P/E, while AHMA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and 24.9% gross margin. NIPG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with SEAT at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SEAT ACTIVE Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A)	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.08%	$27.5M	Benchmark Subject
AIFA All In FutureTech Alliance Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	0.00%	$29.9M	/aifa-vs-seat →
NOMA NOMADAR Corp. (Class A)	E	30/100	—	51.7%	-29.6%	-3.59%	$24.6M	/noma-vs-seat →
AHMA Ambitions Enterprise Management Co. L.L.C (Class A)	D	46/100	26.2x	24.9%	10.6%	-3.57%	$32.1M	/ahma-vs-seat →
NIPG NIP Group Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	—	-9.16%	$32.3M	/nipg-vs-seat →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001856031

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) (SEAT) reported GAAP revenue of $450.5M (-30.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $647.9M , and -24.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $806.1M, operating cash flow of -$91.6M, and free cash flow of -$93.8M (-288.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SEAT closed FY2025 with $636.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$450.5M	$806.1M	-$91.6M	-$93.8M	$636.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$647.9M	$13.4M	$53.9M	$49.7M	$1.64B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$597.4M	$69.4M	$147.3M	$147.3M	—	—

3. SEAT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SEAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SEAT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $2.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $27.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SEAT ranks #755 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SEAT compare to AIFA and NOMA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), SEAT carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AIFA (All In FutureTech Alliance Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $29.9M) and NOMA (NOMADAR Corp. (Class A)) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.6%, cap $24.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AHMA leads on earnings multiple (26.2x) while AHMA leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEAT?

Per SEAT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001856031), Vivid Seats Inc. (Class A) generated $450.5M in revenue (-30.5% YoY), $806.1M in net income, and -$93.8M in free cash flow against $636.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SEAT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SEAT last traded at $2.35 (+1.08% on volume of 94,191 shares), positioning the stock -42.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.11) and -63.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.40). Across its 52-week range of $2.03 to $12.73, SEAT sits at the 3.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.06 to $2.64).