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UFCS (70) UVE (74) HMN (61) KMPR (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$103.95 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.75

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.53B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.75 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 15.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SAFT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SAFT SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.2% FCF Margin ($192.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$103.82+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$104.03+0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$104.16-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$103.95+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SAFT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, SAFT faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($103.70) or 200D SMA ($84.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($106.76) toward Bear Floor ($83.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SAFT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SAFT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

SAFT Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (SAFT)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on SAFT. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SAFT Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SAFT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.30%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $104.3H $104.3L $103.9C $104.0VOL 121.0K

RES: $104.4SUP: $76.74SMA50: $103.7SMA200: $84.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SAFT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SAFT Butterfly Map → + Track SAFT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SAFT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SAFT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SAFT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SAFT)

Financials Rank #351 of 1096 ⚔️ UFCS vs SAFT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SAFT vs. UFCS, UVE, HMN, KMPR)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) ranks #351 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #482 by equity capitalization ($1.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVE leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while UVE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. UVE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with SAFT at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SAFT ACTIVE Safety Insurance Group Inc.	C	64/100	15.4x	—	11.1%	0.00%	$1.53B	Benchmark Subject
UFCS United Fire Group Inc.	B-	70/100	12.4x	—	12.6%	+1.19%	$1.46B	/ufcs-vs-saft →
UVE UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC	B	74/100	7.2x	—	33.2%	+3.44%	$1.32B	/uve-vs-saft →
HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation	C-	61/100	11.6x	—	10.9%	+1.79%	$1.89B	/hmn-vs-saft →
KMPR Kemper Corporation	C+	67/100	13.4x	—	5.3%	+10.48%	$1.92B	/kmpr-vs-saft →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001172052

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.26B (+12.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.12B , and +35.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $99.3M, operating cash flow of $194.5M, and free cash flow of $192.0M (+54.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, SAFT closed FY2025 with $2.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.26B	$99.3M	$194.5M	$192.0M	$2.47B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.12B	$70.7M	$128.7M	$124.3M	$2.27B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$931.0M	$18.9M	$52.1M	$52.1M	—	—

3. SAFT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SAFT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Safety Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $103.95 (0.00% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SAFT ranks #351 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SAFT compare to UFCS and UVE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SAFT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, UFCS (United Fire Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.46B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFT?

Per SAFT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001172052), Safety Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.26B in revenue (+12.8% YoY), $99.3M in net income, and $192.0M in free cash flow against $2.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SAFT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SAFT last traded at $103.95 (0.00% on volume of 76,321 shares), positioning the stock +0.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($103.70) and +22.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($84.66). Across its 52-week range of $67.38 to $104.35, SAFT sits at the 98.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($102.08 to $105.82).

SAFT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are SAFT insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies SAFT leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: SAFT RQD Cockpit SAFT 12M Forecast SAFT Earnings & Move SAFT Dividends & DRIP SAFT Insiders & 13F SAFT Whale Options SAFT Profit Sankey SAFT News & Why