CATALYSTReuters • 2h ago
Indian shares rise on Iran war talks, Reliance earnings beat - ReutersIndian shares rise on Iran war talks, Reliance earnings beat Reuters
Why RUN Stock surged +2.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.59 +2.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.61
Sunrun Inc. (RUN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $1.83B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RUN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is RUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $7.59 (+2.29% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, RUN ranks #400 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does RUN compare to ATS and ALG in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), RUN carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.2%. By comparison, ATS (ATS Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.85B) and ALG (Alamo Group Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 17.2x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALG leads on earnings multiple (17.2x) while ALG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RUN?
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Per RUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001469367), Sunrun Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+45.1% YoY), $449.9K in net income, and -$421.4M in free cash flow against $22.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.61 (+0.22%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RUN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RUN SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (32% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.3% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$7.64-4.5% Next Q
45
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$7.30+3.8% Next Q
42
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$7.58+0.1% Next Q
40
CurrentGrade D-$7.59-8.1% Hist 90D α
37
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RUN Turnaround Squeeze
While RUN currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.13) and Max Pain ($7.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.05.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RUN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RUN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why RUN Stock surged +2.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sunrun Inc. (RUN) surged +2.29% to $7.59, trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($6.78 – $21.95). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($6.78 – $21.95) with RSI-14 at 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.3% around $7.59 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live RUN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 11h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 11h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 12h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RUN)
- ✓Walkthrough of RUN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RUN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -40.38%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $7.36H $7.59L $7.24C $7.59VOL 9.87M
RES: $6.51SUP: $6.44SMA50: $8.13SMA200: $12.42
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
RUN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +45.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RUN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RUN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RUN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RUN)
Industrials Rank #400 of 485
⚔️ ATS vs RUN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (RUN vs. ATS, ALG, SPB, MFP)
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) ranks #400 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #218 by equity capitalization ($1.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALG leads on earnings valuation at 17.2x trailing P/E, while ALG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and 24.8% gross margin. ALG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with RUN at 37/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN
ACTIVE
Sunrun Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -3.2% | +2.29% | $1.83B | Benchmark Subject |
| ATS ATS Corporation | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -0.42% | $1.85B | /ats-vs-run → |
| ALG Alamo Group Inc. | B+ | 77/100 | 17.2x | 24.8% | 14.3% | +1.70% | $1.79B | /alg-vs-run → |
| SPB Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 18.8x | 36.7% | 4.2% | +2.32% | $1.87B | /spb-vs-run → |
| MFP Midera Food Processing Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | -0.83% | $1.88B | /mfp-vs-run → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001469367In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sunrun Inc. (RUN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.96B (+45.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.04B , and +30.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $449.9K, operating cash flow of -$421.4M, and free cash flow of -$421.4M (+45.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RUN closed FY2025 with $22.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.96B | $449.9K | -$421.4M | -$421.4M | $22.61B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.04B | -$2.85B | -$766.2M | -$767.7M | $19.90B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.26B | -$1.60B | -$820.7M | -$820.7M | — | — |
3. RUN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs RUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $7.59 (+2.29% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, RUN ranks #400 in composite RQD confidence.
How does RUN compare to ATS and ALG in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), RUN carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.2%. By comparison, ATS (ATS Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.85B) and ALG (Alamo Group Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 17.2x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALG leads on earnings multiple (17.2x) while ALG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RUN?
Per RUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001469367), Sunrun Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+45.1% YoY), $449.9K in net income, and -$421.4M in free cash flow against $22.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is RUN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
RUN last traded at $7.59 (+2.29% on volume of 5,106,340 shares), positioning the stock -6.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.13) and -38.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.42). Across its 52-week range of $6.78 to $21.95, RUN sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($6.73 to $8.45).
RUN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is RUN stock moving today?
Why RUN Stock surged +2.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.