Stock Ratings / Health Care / REPL / options

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Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$17.39 +8.28% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62 (+1.30%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REPL SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 75.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$13.42-19.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.86+5.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$11.46+51.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$17.39-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REPL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REPL currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.58) and Max Pain ($18.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (REPL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for REPL.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REPL)

✓Walkthrough of REPL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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REPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +576.65%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $17.49H $18.27L $16.64C $17.39VOL 3.85M

RES: $21.25SUP: $11.60SMA50: $13.58SMA200: $9.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REPL Butterfly Map → + Track REPL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REPL)

Health Care Rank #442 of 1016 ⚔️ IMCR vs REPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (REPL vs. IMCR, NVAX, MAZE, LYCA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) ranks #442 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #294 by equity capitalization ($1.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. LYCA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with REPL at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REPL ACTIVE Replimune Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+8.28%	$1.65B	Benchmark Subject
IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc	E	31/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-4.11%	$1.61B	/imcr-vs-repl →
NVAX Novavax Inc.	D+	56/100	3.9x	93.5%	85.0%	+1.45%	$1.73B	/nvax-vs-repl →
MAZE Maze Therapeutics Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.63%	$1.77B	/maze-vs-repl →
LYCA Lycia Therapeutics Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+10.70%	$1.44B	/lyca-vs-repl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001737953

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$313.9M, operating cash flow of -$280.3M, and free cash flow of -$280.3M (-45.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, REPL closed FY2025 with $333.6M in total assets against $47.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$0	-$313.9M	-$280.3M	-$280.3M	$333.6M	$47.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$0	-$247.3M	-$192.3M	-$192.3M	$603.6M	$46.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$0	-$215.8M	-$185.5M	-$185.5M	—	—

3. REPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Replimune Group Inc. (NASDAQ: REPL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $17.39 (+8.28% 1D, market cap $1.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, REPL ranks #442 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REPL compare to IMCR and NVAX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), REPL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMCR (Immunocore Holdings plc) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.61B) and NVAX (Novavax Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 3.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPL?

Per REPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001737953), Replimune Group Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$313.9M in net income, and -$280.3M in free cash flow against $333.6M in total assets and $47.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REPL last traded at $17.39 (+8.28% on volume of 5,146,201 shares), positioning the stock +28.06% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.58) and +87.19% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.29). Across its 52-week range of $1.50 to $18.27, REPL sits at the 94.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 75.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($15.22 to $19.56).

REPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is REPL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for REPL.

Direct Sub-Reports: REPL RQD Cockpit REPL 12M Forecast REPL Earnings & Move REPL Dividends & DRIP REPL Insiders & 13F REPL Whale Options REPL Profit Sankey REPL News & Why