Stock Ratings / Health Care / REPL / earnings

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Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$17.39 +8.28% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62 (+1.30%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REPL SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 75.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$13.42-19.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.86+5.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$11.46+51.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$17.39-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REPL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REPL currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.58) and Max Pain ($18.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$2.17 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

REPL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 46/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (46/100)Model Risk Weight (54/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-03-31	$0	-$313.9M	-$280.3M	52%
FY 2024	2025-03-31	$0	-$247.3M	-$192.3M	52%
FY 2023	2024-03-31	$0	-$215.8M	-$185.5M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REPL)

✓Walkthrough of REPL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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REPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +576.65%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $17.49H $18.27L $16.64C $17.39VOL 3.85M

RES: $21.25SUP: $11.60SMA50: $13.58SMA200: $9.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REPL Butterfly Map → + Track REPL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REPL)

Health Care Rank #442 of 1016 ⚔️ IMCR vs REPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (REPL vs. IMCR, NVAX, MAZE, LYCA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) ranks #442 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #294 by equity capitalization ($1.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. LYCA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with REPL at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REPL ACTIVE Replimune Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+8.28%	$1.65B	Benchmark Subject
IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc	E	31/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-4.11%	$1.61B	/imcr-vs-repl →
NVAX Novavax Inc.	D+	56/100	3.9x	93.5%	85.0%	+1.45%	$1.73B	/nvax-vs-repl →
MAZE Maze Therapeutics Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.63%	$1.77B	/maze-vs-repl →
LYCA Lycia Therapeutics Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+10.70%	$1.44B	/lyca-vs-repl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001737953

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$313.9M, operating cash flow of -$280.3M, and free cash flow of -$280.3M (-45.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, REPL closed FY2025 with $333.6M in total assets against $47.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$0	-$313.9M	-$280.3M	-$280.3M	$333.6M	$47.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$0	-$247.3M	-$192.3M	-$192.3M	$603.6M	$46.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$0	-$215.8M	-$185.5M	-$185.5M	—	—

3. REPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Replimune Group Inc. (NASDAQ: REPL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $17.39 (+8.28% 1D, market cap $1.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, REPL ranks #442 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REPL compare to IMCR and NVAX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), REPL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMCR (Immunocore Holdings plc) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.61B) and NVAX (Novavax Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 3.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPL?

Per REPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001737953), Replimune Group Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$313.9M in net income, and -$280.3M in free cash flow against $333.6M in total assets and $47.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REPL last traded at $17.39 (+8.28% on volume of 5,146,201 shares), positioning the stock +28.06% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.58) and +87.19% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.29). Across its 52-week range of $1.50 to $18.27, REPL sits at the 94.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 75.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($15.22 to $19.56).

REPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is REPL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Replimune Group Inc. (REPL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is REPL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for REPL, spanning a range between $15.22 and $19.56.

Direct Sub-Reports: REPL RQD Cockpit REPL 12M Forecast REPL Earnings & Move REPL Dividends & DRIP REPL Insiders & 13F REPL Whale Options REPL Profit Sankey REPL News & Why