Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / REAL / earnings

SVV (55) SPH (64) SBH (79) EZPW (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

The RealReal Inc. (REAL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.2% Move

$11.35 +2.62% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.38

The RealReal Inc. (REAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, The RealReal Inc. (NASDAQ: REAL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $11.35 (+2.62% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, REAL ranks #728 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REAL compare to SVV and SPH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), REAL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.6%, and ROIC of -27.4%. By comparison, SVV (Savers Value Village Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 64.5x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $1.46B) and SPH (Suburban Propane Partners L.P.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $1.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SBH leads on earnings multiple (8.7x) while SBH leads on capital efficiency (38.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REAL?

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Per REAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001573221), The RealReal Inc. generated $692.8M in revenue (+15.4% YoY), $41.80B in net income, and $18.4M in free cash flow against $409.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.38 (+0.28%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 2.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REAL SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 72 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$9.75+6.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.39+4.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.84+4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$11.35-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REAL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REAL currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.00) and Max Pain ($11.92) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.2% Swing Band

±$1.38 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

REAL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 46/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 15.4%

Model Bullish Setup (46/100)Model Risk Weight (54/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$692.8M	$41.80B	$18.4M	74.6%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$600.5M	$134.20B	$12.6M	74.5%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$549.3M	$168.47B	-$61.3M	74.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REAL)

✓Walkthrough of REAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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REAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.54%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $11.24H $12.69L $11.24C $11.35VOL 10.26M

RES: $14.21SUP: $7.90SMA50: $10.00SMA200: $11.01

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REAL Butterfly Map → + Track REAL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REAL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #728 of 1011 ⚔️ SVV vs REAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (REAL vs. SVV, SPH, SBH, EZPW)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The RealReal Inc. (REAL) ranks #728 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #469 by equity capitalization ($1.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SBH leads on earnings valuation at 8.7x trailing P/E, while SBH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.9% ROIC and 51.6% gross margin. SBH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with REAL at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REAL ACTIVE The RealReal Inc.	D	46/100	—	74.6%	-27.4%	+2.62%	$1.38B	Benchmark Subject
SVV Savers Value Village Inc.	D+	55/100	64.5x	—	9.3%	+5.70%	$1.46B	/svv-vs-real →
SPH Suburban Propane Partners L.P.	C	64/100	11.2x	60.6%	8.4%	+1.08%	$1.19B	/sph-vs-real →
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.)	B+	79/100	8.7x	51.6%	38.9%	+4.71%	$1.71B	/sbh-vs-real →
EZPW EZCORP Inc. Class A Non Voting	B	73/100	16.3x	58.5%	10.5%	-1.99%	$1.79B	/ezpw-vs-real →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001573221

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The RealReal Inc. (REAL) reported GAAP revenue of $692.8M (+15.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $600.5M , and +26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.80B, operating cash flow of $37.0M, and free cash flow of $18.4M (+45.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, REAL closed FY2025 with $409.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$692.8M	$41.80B	$37.0M	$18.4M	$409.0M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$600.5M	$134.20B	$26.8M	$12.6M	$423.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$549.3M	$168.47B	-$61.3M	-$61.3M	—	—

3. REAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does REAL compare to SVV and SPH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REAL?

Where is REAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REAL last traded at $11.35 (+2.62% on volume of 9,543,385 shares), positioning the stock +13.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.00) and +3.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.01). Across its 52-week range of $8.05 to $17.39, REAL sits at the 35.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 72.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.2% ($9.97 to $12.73).

REAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is REAL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, The RealReal Inc. (REAL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is REAL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.2% event move for REAL, spanning a range between $9.97 and $12.73.

Direct Sub-Reports: REAL RQD Cockpit REAL 12M Forecast REAL Earnings & Move REAL Dividends & DRIP REAL Insiders & 13F REAL Whale Options REAL Profit Sankey REAL News & Why