Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / PTON / forecast

CALY (63) YETI (85) MAT (67) GOLF (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.28 +0.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.27

Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.35B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.27 (-0.16%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 13.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PTON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PTON SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 38% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$5.12+2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$5.22+2.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$5.37-1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.28-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PTON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PTON currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.12) and Max Pain ($5.54) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PTON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PTON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PTON Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.28: 1893.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.97

$7,519

$-2,481 (-24.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.09

$9,640

$-360 (-3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.32

$15,758

+$5,758 (+57.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$5	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$8	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PTON)

✓Walkthrough of PTON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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PTON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.12%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $5.29H $5.29L $5.08C $5.28VOL 5.45M

RES: $7.04SUP: $4.45SMA50: $5.12SMA200: $5.22

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PTON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PTON Butterfly Map → + Track PTON →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PTON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PTON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PTON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PTON)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #635 of 1011 ⚔️ CALY vs PTON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PTON vs. CALY, YETI, MAT, GOLF)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) ranks #635 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #397 by equity capitalization ($2.35B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAT leads on earnings valuation at 11.1x trailing P/E, while YETI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.5% ROIC and 57.4% gross margin. YETI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 85/100 (A-) compared with PTON at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PTON ACTIVE Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	50.9%	-24.3%	+0.19%	$2.35B	Benchmark Subject
CALY Callaway Golf Company	C	63/100	—	42.1%	5.6%	+3.90%	$2.71B	/caly-vs-pton →
YETI YETI Holdings Inc.	A-	85/100	19.5x	57.4%	23.5%	+2.98%	$3.23B	/yeti-vs-pton →
MAT Mattel Inc.	C+	67/100	11.1x	48.7%	13.0%	+1.31%	$4.42B	/mat-vs-pton →
GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp.	B-	70/100	26.5x	47.7%	13.8%	+2.73%	$5.00B	/golf-vs-pton →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001639825

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) reported GAAP revenue of $2.49B (-7.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.70B , and -11.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$118.9M, operating cash flow of $333.0M, and free cash flow of $333.0M (+603.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, PTON closed FY2025 with $2.16B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$2.49B	-$118.9M	$333.0M	$333.0M	$2.16B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$2.70B	-$551.9M	-$66.1M	-$66.1M	$2.11B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$2.80B	-$1.26B	-$387.6M	-$387.6M	—	—

3. PTON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PTON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: PTON) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $5.28 (+0.19% 1D, market cap $2.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PTON ranks #635 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PTON compare to CALY and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), PTON carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 50.9%, and ROIC of -24.3%. By comparison, CALY (Callaway Golf Company) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.6%, cap $2.71B) and YETI (YETI Holdings Inc.) posts a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 23.5%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAT leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while YETI leads on capital efficiency (23.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PTON?

Per PTON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001639825), Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) generated $2.49B in revenue (-7.8% YoY), -$118.9M in net income, and $333.0M in free cash flow against $2.16B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PTON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PTON last traded at $5.28 (+0.19% on volume of 5,121,993 shares), positioning the stock +3.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.12) and +1.15% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.22). Across its 52-week range of $3.65 to $7.92, PTON sits at the 38.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($4.85 to $5.71).

PTON Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PTON's 12-month stock price target?

Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.09 (-3.6% from $5.28), with a bull-case target of $8.32 and a bear-case floor of $3.97.

Is PTON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PTON D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 50/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: PTON RQD Cockpit PTON 12M Forecast PTON Earnings & Move PTON Dividends & DRIP PTON Insiders & 13F PTON Whale Options PTON Profit Sankey PTON News & Why